From the weekend through Monday, the market experienced a strong rally. Bitcoin briefly broke through $74,400, while Ethereum showed even more impressive performance with a 24-hour gain of 6.8%, surpassing $2,236. Two key variables drove this uptrend. On the macro level, signals of de-escalation emerged in Middle East tensions—a commercial oil tanker successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz for the first time on Sunday, with Iran stating the strait is closed only to "hostile parties." This development pushed oil prices down from the $106 high, with the US dollar index weakening in tandem, temporarily easing the liquidity pressure suppressing risk assets. Meanwhile, US-China economic and trade teams restarted negotiations in Paris, bolstering global market risk appetite.

At the market structure level, capital is rotating along the risk curve. Ethereum's outperformance versus Bitcoin typically signals returning risk appetite—funds are no longer solely hiding in Bitcoin for safety, but beginning to flow toward higher-beta mainstream assets. Institutional capital continues to enter steadily. Last week, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows of $763 million, while Ethereum spot ETFs received net inflows of $160 million, both marking three consecutive weeks of net inflows. BlackRock's newly launched staking Ethereum ETF surpassed $15.5 million in trading volume on its first day.

Looking ahead to the Fed: The FOMC meeting this week will release the interest rate decision, with Powell holding a press conference Wednesday. The market broadly expects rates to remain unchanged, but whether the oil price rebound will alter inflation assessments and whether the dot plot will reduce expectations for interest rate cuts this year will be key variables affecting subsequent market moves. #加密市场上涨 $BTC