From the weekend through Monday, the market experienced a strong rally. Bitcoin briefly broke through $74,400, while Ethereum's performance was even more impressive, with a 24-hour gain of 6.8%, surging past $2,236. Two key variables drove this rally. On the macro level, Middle East tensions showed signs of easing—commercial oil tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz for the first time on Sunday, and Iran stated the strait is closed only to "hostile parties." This development pushed oil prices down from the $106 high, with the US dollar index weakening in tandem, temporarily relieving the liquidity pressure suppressing risk assets. Meanwhile, the US-China economic and trade teams resumed negotiations in Paris, further boosting global market risk appetite.

From a market structure perspective, funds are rotating along the risk curve. Ethereum's outperformance versus Bitcoin typically signals returning risk appetite—capital is no longer simply taking refuge in Bitcoin for safety, but beginning to flow toward mainstream assets with higher elasticity. Institutional capital continues to flow in. Last week, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows of $763 million, while Ethereum spot ETFs saw net inflows of $160 million, both marking three consecutive weeks of inflows. BlackRock's newly launched staking Ethereum ETF saw first-day trading volume exceed $15.5 million.

Looking ahead to the Federal Reserve. This week's FOMC meeting will announce the interest rate decision, with Powell holding a press conference on Wednesday. The market widely expects rates to remain unchanged, but whether the oil price rebound will alter inflation judgments and whether the dot plot will reduce expectations for rate cuts this year will be key variables affecting market movements. #加密市场上涨 $BTC