8 months to make a million! Hong Kong's recovering real estate market sees speculation surge again

Author | Xie Zhaoqing

Editor | Liu Peng

“Unexpected windfall” — Hong Kong local owner Florence expressed her amazement after selling a new property in Sai Kung in the last week of February this year, saying, “Bought less than 8 months ago, net profit exceeded HKD 1 million.”

Her process of making this money was relatively simple: at the end of May 2025, when Hong Kong’s property market was still sluggish, she bought a 2-bedroom pre-sale unit at Sierra Sea in Sai Kung West by Sun Hung Kai Properties for HKD 6.95 million (pre-sales in Hong Kong are non-transferable), and took possession in December 2025, planning to move in for personal residence. At that time, the Hong Kong market had clearly rebounded, with several agencies asking for prices. She finally sold the property for HKD 8.33 million.

This is not an isolated case. Xu Kezhi, Senior Regional Director of Centaline Property in Ma On Shan, told Tencent News “Qianwang” that over the past two months, about 40 similar “short-term trading” transactions have been handled by him and his team for the Sierra Sea project, with the highest returns approaching 40%.

Most of these sellers were long-term investors primarily earning rental income. “Seeing the market improve slightly and profit opportunities arise, they choose to cash out early and lock in gains,” said Chen Yongjie, Vice Chairman and President of Residential at Centaline Property Asia-Pacific, to Tencent News “Qianwang.” “They may regret later because it will be very difficult to buy back at the current selling prices.”

“Now, Hong Kong’s property market is like someone recovering from a serious illness, able to walk out of the hospital, with a clear improvement in condition, and expected to recover starting in the second half of 2025,” Chen Yongjie said optimistically. He predicts that the market will rise more than 15% in the next year.

Regarding the recent “short-term trading” trend in Hong Kong, including opinions from Chen Yongjie and Xu Kezhi, many in the local real estate and financial circles agree that there is no need to worry; this is just an isolated case.

Chen Yongjie told Tencent News “Qianwang” that Hong Kong’s property market has just begun to recover, and it will still take a long time before professional speculators appear on a large scale.

He explained that after nearly five years of economic turbulence, the once-active professional speculators with strong financial backing in Hong Kong have disappeared, and “the new generation of speculators has yet to emerge.”

Resurgence of Individual Short-term Traders

“The key to success or failure in short-term trading is timing,” Chen Yongjie summarized. The new development Sierra Sea, located in Sai Kung, was handed over on December 1. Less than two months later, a wave of owners began selling — sellers bought and sold at just the right time, coinciding with a turning point in Hong Kong’s property market.

Public data shows that Sierra Sea is a large-scale project by Sun Hung Kai in Sai Kung West, with an expected 46 residential towers offering nearly 10,000 units. The first batch (including phases 1A2 and 1B, over 1,500 units) started sales in April-May 2025.

The timing of these sales coincided with the market’s low point. According to government data, the Residential Price Index was 286.5 points in April and May 2025, the lowest since August 2016. This also means that property prices in Hong Kong had fallen to levels seen nearly ten years ago during April-May last year.

The project was scheduled for completion on December 1, 2025. Since May 2025, the Hong Kong market has been on an upward trend, with the Residential Price Index rising from 286.5 to 299.8 in December 2025. The latest government data shows that the index had slightly pulled back to 301.4 in January 2026.

New developments in Hong Kong can only be sold on the secondary market after obtaining occupation permits; pre-sales “pre-sale units” cannot be transferred before that. Sierra Sea’s first batch of units was occupied on December 1, 2025.

“Shortly after taking possession, transactions started to emerge,” said Xu Kezhi, Senior Regional Director of Centaline Property in Ma On Shan, who is also the top seller for this project. He added that over the past two months, his team handled about 40 second-hand transactions for Sierra Sea. His team is also the top seller for this project.

Tencent News “Qianwang” statistics show that as of February 27, 45 second-hand transactions had been registered with the government, with 19 of them showing a profit of over 20%. Many units in this project sold for over HKD 5 million, with some “short-term traders” making actual profits exceeding HKD 1 million, holding for about 8 months — bought in April-May 2025 and sold in January-February 2026.

“In fact, the number of signed second-hand deals far exceeds this,” Xu Kezhi revealed, stating that over 100 units have been signed, most of which are still awaiting registration. He also noted that most new buyers are for self-occupation.

These “short-term traders” were originally long-term rental investors, but after seeing profit potential, they chose to sell. There is no restriction on how long one can hold a property before selling in Hong Kong.

Tencent News “Qianwang” learned that a local investor bought a 3-bedroom unit for HKD 8.2 million, planning to rent it out for HKD 25,000 per month. After taking possession during the Spring Festival, by early January, it was still not rented out. He then sold the unit for HKD 10 million.

Xu Kezhi believes these “short-term traders” likely saw a profit of about HKD 1 million and decided to lock in gains.

Besides new developments, some traders are also focusing on the second-hand market. A real estate agent based in New Territories told Tencent News “Qianwang” that there are also some short-term trading cases under HKD 4 million. In the past two months, he handled three such transactions, one of which took about six months and yielded a profit of over HKD 800,000. These buyers, besides long-term rental investors, include some renovation company owners who buy low, renovate, and resell — earning not only the premium but also renovation fees.

However, this price segment is still mainly composed of self-occupiers, and the proportion of short-term traders is not high. “A Hong Kong real estate analyst told Tencent News ‘Qianwang’ that transaction volume in this price range hit a nine-year high in 2025, exceeding 12,000 units.”

This is because in February 2025, the Hong Kong government reduced stamp duty for properties priced at HKD 4 million or less to HKD 100, making “short-term trading” costs as low as around HKD 5,000, including legal and documentation fees.

“Undoubtedly, Hong Kong’s property market has indeed improved and entered an upward trend,” Chen Yongjie told Tencent News “Qianwang.” This is also one of the reasons for the recent rise of short-term trading.

Government data also shows property prices have increased for eight consecutive months. In 2025, Hong Kong’s new home transactions reached 20,525 units, a six-year high; second-hand transactions totaled 39,843 units, a four-year high. According to Chen Yongjie, since the market turned in April-May 2025, it has been on a sustained upward trend: rising in both volume and price. Centaline’s price data confirms this, as shown in the chart below.

Major local developers in Hong Kong are also starting to hold back sales or even increase prices. A transaction price list from Sun Hung Kai’s YOHOHUB, obtained by Tencent News “Qianwang,” shows that units on the 12th, 15th, and 16th floors were sold via bidding on January 28, February 13, and February 24, respectively. The prices per square meter were about HKD 10,000 higher than those in December 2025 and early 2026 for units on the 18th, 19th, and 21st floors, with higher floors generally commanding higher prices.

Chen Yongjie believes, “Most of these short-term traders are individual investors, unlike the previously wealthy professional speculators in Hong Kong, who might make tens or hundreds of thousands and then exit.”

He told Tencent News “Qianwang” that these individual short-term traders are likely to regret in the future, “because it will be very difficult to buy back the same property at the current selling prices.” He is optimistic that Hong Kong’s property market will continue to rise over the next year or even longer.

Unsustainable?

“I am not worried about this short-term trading trend because it cannot last; it’s just a temporary phenomenon,” Chen Yongjie told Tencent News “Qianwang.”

The Sierra Sea project’s quick resale profit after handover is an exception: buy at the lowest point, sell during the rise. Chen Yongjie explained that similar new developments are rare. The only project that started sales when prices were relatively low last year was Woodies in Wan Chai, which completed handover as early as July this year.

Xu Kezhi speculates that there might be “short-term trading” at this project, located in Hong Kong’s core business district, where the 2-bedroom units were priced at just over HKD 7 million. “Such projects are very limited in number and cannot form a widespread speculative trend.”

More importantly, overall Hong Kong property prices are still rising only modestly. Government data shows a 3.25% increase in property prices in 2025. Chen Yongjie describes the current Hong Kong market as “a gentle recovery after a serious illness, with a long way to go before full recovery.”

The current market differs from the sharp rebound after the 2016 downturn. In 2017, Hong Kong’s property prices increased by 15.1% cumulatively, with 21 consecutive months of growth, 14 of which set new records.

Many in the local real estate and financial circles, including Chen Yongjie, agree that property prices are still over 30% below their all-time highs. “Investor confidence remains weak, and only first-time homebuyers are gradually entering.”

However, the supply of new projects remains high. Data shows that by the end of 2025, there were still 18,694 unsold new units across over 300 developments, despite over 20,000 units being sold in the past year — indicating no significant easing of inventory pressure. Market forecasts suggest about 17,000 new units will be completed in 2026.

Chen Yongjie told Tencent News “Qianwang,” “The current short-term traders are not the mainstream investors, and there won’t be a large influx of professional speculators in 2026 unless there is a major positive catalyst causing a sharp rise in prices.”

“After several years of turbulence, the established wealthy speculators in Hong Kong have mostly disappeared, just like mainland property owners, gradually withdrawing from the Hong Kong capital market,” Chen Yongjie pointed out. These veteran speculators, besides residential properties, have shifted more funds into office buildings and shops, but most of these prices have been halved, “their strength has been drained.”

Compared to today’s short-term traders, these veteran speculators are more capable and patient. Many, including Chen Yongjie, believe that where the next wave of strong, capable investors will come from remains unknown.