"Super Strong El Niño Will Cause Hottest Year" Tops Trending Search - Fact or Fiction? Expert Response →

Source: CCTV News

Recently, topics such as “2023 and 2024 may become the hottest years in history” and “Super El Niño phenomenon may occur” have trended on the internet, attracting widespread public attention. Several media outlets report that multiple scientific institutions worldwide predict that a strong El Niño could develop later this year, disrupting global climate. This may not only trigger extreme heat, floods, droughts, and other disasters but also further raise global temperatures, potentially pushing summer temperatures this year and next to record highs. In response to these societal concerns, a reporter interviewed experts from the China Meteorological Administration for clarification.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a coupled ocean-atmosphere oscillation occurring in the tropical Pacific with a cycle of 3 to 7 years, representing natural variability in the climate system. ENSO phases are generally indicated by the duration and strength of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (deviations from the climate average) in a fixed region of the central-eastern tropical Pacific.

• If the 3-month moving average SST remains above 0.5°C for five consecutive months, it indicates a warm phase, called El Niño;
• If it remains below -0.5°C for five months, it indicates a cold phase, called La Niña;
• If it fluctuates between -0.5°C and 0.5°C, it is considered a neutral state.

Image source: National Climate Center

Possible Entry into El Niño State in Late Spring

Based on the latest monitoring data and predictions from various climate models domestically and internationally, the China Meteorological Administration’s National Climate Center indicates that La Niña conditions are ending, and a neutral phase is expected to follow. The SST in the tropical central-eastern Pacific is projected to continue rising, with the possibility of entering an El Niño state in late spring.

Climate expert Liu Yunyun explained that, historically, about one-third of La Niña events end with an El Niño phase within the same year. Different models worldwide predict varying timings for the onset of El Niño, with earliest predictions as early as April and latest as late summer or early fall. The differences among models are significant, for example:

• The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts predicts April;
• Australia forecasts May;
• Japan Meteorological Agency predicts June;
• U.S. experts’ voting suggests July to September.

Overall, there is a higher likelihood of El Niño developing in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific in the second half of this year, but the exact timing and overall strength remain uncertain. Currently, multiple international climate models show considerable divergence, and no consensus has been reached. Therefore, it is premature to conclude that a “super El Niño” will occur this year.

Climate expert Chen Lijuan pointed out that El Niño events are often accompanied by an increase in global average temperatures. However, the extent of warming and extreme weather manifestations depend on the strength, type, and regional climate response of El Niño, requiring ongoing monitoring and analysis. It is too early to definitively say that an extremely strong El Niño will cause the hottest year on record.

Weather and climate change are closely related to people’s lives and economic development. As a result, weather and climate information tend to attract high public attention. Amid frequent extreme weather events, there is a vast amount of related information circulating. Currently, discussions on social media about “hottest years” and “extreme weather” are lively, but some information may be exaggerated or taken out of context.

Chen Lijuan advises the public to view forecast information rationally. Climate predictions carry uncertainties, especially regarding the specific timing, strength, and regional impacts of El Niño, which require dynamic monitoring and prediction. The public should rely on authoritative sources for real-time updates rather than isolated extreme statements. It is recommended to follow official channels such as the National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration’s website and official social media platforms, and regularly check authoritative reports like ENSO monitoring bulletins. International organizations like the World Meteorological Organization and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change also publish periodic global climate assessments, which can serve as references.

Finally, regardless of whether El Niño occurs, the frequent occurrence of extreme weather has become a new normal in global climate change. Scientific responses are essential. The public should stay alert to weather warnings and prepare accordingly. Agricultural producers should plan farming activities reasonably, and city managers should strengthen the resilience of infrastructure such as power, water supply, and transportation.

(Report by Wu Wei, CCTV)