Cobalt-Lithium New Energy Market, Weekly Price Analysis! LFP Follows Rise in Lithium Carbonate, Orders Flow to Mid-Size Manufacturers

(Source: SMM New Energy)

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Lithium Ore:

This week, lithium ore prices continued to fluctuate within the range following lithium salt prices. Currently, prices remain high within the range, with overseas mines showing some willingness to release supplies; traders’ circulating volume has slightly improved after the holiday, but overall scarcity sentiment keeps prices firm, with little change in processing fees when quoting. On the demand side, driven by sustained production and inventory destocking, lithium salt manufacturers are more active in purchasing and inquiry. Currently, due to Zimbabwe’s export ban policy, lithium ore prices remain high and volatile.

Lithium Carbonate:

This week, spot prices for lithium carbonate showed range-bound fluctuations with a slight downward shift. Prices dipped slightly at the start of the week (March 9), then rose over the next two days, and declined again on Thursday (March 12). The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate from SMM decreased compared to last week. Futures market volatility was intense, with main contract prices fluctuating widely between 142,000 and 167,300 yuan/ton. Market transactions showed a stalemate with upstream sellers reluctant to sell and downstream buyers cautious. Upstream lithium salt producers were generally hesitant to sell, maintaining a firm stance, with only a few small quantities sold during price peaks. Downstream material manufacturers maintained a low-buying strategy; when prices quickly fell to relatively low levels, some increased procurement, but after prices rose, they quickly adopted a wait-and-see approach, with little enthusiasm for chasing higher prices. Overall, inquiry activity remains moderate, but actual transactions are somewhat subdued. Looking ahead, the market is expected to remain weak in the short term. Upstream sellers’ reluctance to sell provides some price support, but downstream demand remains weak, lacking sustained growth. With futures market sentiment cooling and positions decreasing, upward momentum is limited, and prices are likely to fluctuate sideways in the near term.

Lithium Hydroxide:

This week, lithium hydroxide prices fluctuated within the range compared to last week. From supply and demand perspectives, upstream companies showed some willingness to release supplies due to a slight decrease in downstream pickup volumes, leading to range-bound quotes. Most downstream ternary material factories’ March orders met expectations, with long-term contracts sufficient for current production; aside from a few manufacturers with small procurement needs, overall trading was light. Short-term, lithium hydroxide prices are expected to continue fluctuating within the range.

Electrolytic Cobalt:

This week, spot electrolytic cobalt prices hovered around 430,000 yuan/ton. Major smelters slightly lowered ex-works prices, with basis spreads stable: regular brands at a discount of 2,000 yuan/ton to parity, premium brands at a premium of 5,000–8,000 yuan/ton. Downstream demand was sluggish, with cautious sentiment dominating; only sporadic urgent replenishments occurred, with no significant volume. The fundamentals remain uncertain regarding the arrival of intermediate cobalt products, and raw material tightness persists, providing some support at the bottom. Looking ahead, as restocking demand gradually releases, electrolytic cobalt prices still have room to rise.

Intermediate Products:

This week, cobalt intermediate product prices continued to stabilize. Supply-side miners’ export progress remains slow, with holders delaying quotes, leading to scarce circulating spot supply. Demand-side smelters face increased raw material shortages; although procurement intent exists, supply instability and uncertain downstream orders make both buyers and sellers cautious, resulting in a market characterized by “high prices but no trading.” Overall, export delays raise doubts about large-scale arrivals, and domestic raw material structural tightness may intensify; once downstream orders are confirmed and procurement resumes, intermediate product prices could rise further. Attention should be paid to Congo (DRC) export developments and demand recovery pace.

Cobalt Salts (Cobalt Sulfate and Cobalt Chloride):

This week, cobalt sulfate spot prices remained stable. On the supply side, most smelters supported prices at 95,000–98,000 yuan/ton due to raw material tightness; small smelters and traders, under financial pressure, completed liquidation last week or early this week, with low-price quotes converging. Demand-side orders remain uncertain, with most companies cautious; post-holiday stocking intentions have not yet emerged, with only sporadic urgent replenishments at low prices. In the short term, the market is in a phase of inventory digestion, mainly fluctuating; however, with Congo (DRC) raw material supply bottlenecks unresolved, domestic supply tightening, and cost support still present, prices are expected to rebound after inventory clearance.

The chloride cobalt market was quieter than last week, with prices remaining firm. Major companies maintained strong bids above 117,000 yuan/ton, with the highest at 120,000 yuan/ton, but downstream procurement sentiment did not improve, remaining cautious. Due to weak terminal demand and ample raw material inventories at material manufacturers, inquiries decreased significantly, with transactions mainly sporadic, centered around 115,000 yuan/ton. Some small traders’ low-price sales are unlikely to impact the overall market. Overall, activity declined, and both buyers and sellers are in a stalemate, with prices expected to remain stable in the short term.

Cobalt Salts (Cobalt Tetraoxide):

This week, cobalt tetraoxide markets remained steady, with overall activity weak. Leading enterprises maintained quotes around 370,000 yuan/ton, supported by tight intermediate cobalt inventories. Demand was more subdued than last week, with downstream cobalt lithium material manufacturers slowing procurement and making small replenishments based on existing orders, leading to slight declines in inquiries and transactions. With persistent supply and demand stalemate, prices are expected to stay stable in the short term, with limited volatility.

Nickel Sulfate:

As of Thursday, SMM battery-grade nickel sulfate prices increased compared to last week. On the demand side, some manufacturers have begun inquiries and show improved purchasing sentiment, but due to uncertain downstream orders, they remain cautious about high prices. On the supply side, recent uncertainties in Indonesian MHP supply and rising raw material costs have led some producers to raise quotes. Looking ahead to Q2, attention should be paid to raw material support for nickel sulfate prices. Inventory levels remain moderate, with upstream nickel salt factories at about 4.7 days, downstream precursor factories at 7.1 days (down from 7.4), and integrated companies at 6.8 days. Buying and selling sentiment indices are stable, with upstream at 1.8, downstream at 2.7, and integrated at 2.4. (Historical data available in the database.)

Ternary Precursors:

This week, ternary precursor prices remained stable overall. Raw material prices saw slight increases: nickel sulfate slightly up, cobalt sulfate stable, manganese sulfate stable. Regarding discounts for March orders, some manufacturers are willing to raise nickel discounts due to expected raw material price increases. Long-term orders remain unchanged from February, with no significant increase in discounts. Spot orders placed before the Spring Festival have slightly higher discounts in March compared to February. Production resumed gradually in March, with leading domestic manufacturers and those with significant export orders maintaining high production levels. Looking ahead, overall sulfate prices are trending stronger, potentially providing further cost support for precursors.

Ternary Materials:

This week, ternary cathode material prices rose slightly. Raw material prices—nickel sulfate, cobalt sulfate, manganese sulfate—remained stable; lithium carbonate prices increased, while lithium hydroxide prices slightly declined. Overall, prices from cathode manufacturers showed little change from last week. Supply-side expectations of tightness for nickel, cobalt, and lithium support some upward movement. However, demand recovery is weaker than expected, with downstream procurement cautious and limited acceptance of discount increases. Therefore, future price increases for raw materials are expected to be modest, and space for cathode discount rises will be constrained. Demand from the EV market remains subdued due to poor sales performance domestically and abroad, with orders below previous expectations. In small power and consumer markets, downstream demand is generally flat; some cathode manufacturers rely on pre- and post-holiday orders, maintaining stable production. Overall, demand recovery momentum is insufficient, and expectations for April demand are cautious.

Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP):

This week, LFP prices continued upward, driven by rising carbonate prices, with an increase of about 670 yuan/ton, while SMM carbonate prices rose approximately 2,700 yuan/ton. Production levels remained similar to last week; SMM’s March production plan accounts for actual delivery and order gaps. Overall, LFP manufacturers remain active, with significant increases in downstream orders compared to February, leading to increased output. However, some orders still flow from leading to mid- and tail-end producers. Some cell manufacturers have initiated tendering, but no related news has emerged yet; changes in processing fees require ongoing observation.

Lithium Iron Phosphate:

This week, SMM prices for lithium iron phosphate increased by 100 yuan/ton. New order negotiations are mostly concluded, with a clear upward trend. Recently, due to the Iran conflict, phosphate prices rose by 500–600 yuan/ton last week, with potential for further increases. Some regions also saw rises in ferrous phosphate prices; new phosphate orders may face another round of price hikes. Overall, iron prices remain stable. Production remains active, with some phosphate producers experiencing minor maintenance or reduced output, but most remain highly active, with expected significant increases in March.

Cobalt Lithium Oxide:

This week, cobalt lithium oxide prices remained stable. Mainstream quotes for standard models stay above 400,000 yuan/ton, with high-voltage products at around 420,000 yuan/ton. Due to the seasonal slowdown in electronics demand and chip shortages in Q1, cell manufacturers hold sufficient inventories, further reducing procurement enthusiasm. Transactions mainly involve planned needs, with a generally subdued market atmosphere. Under the combined influence of stable raw material prices and weak demand, cobalt lithium oxide prices are expected to remain steady in the short term, with market participants cautious and awaiting demand changes.

Anode:

This week, domestic artificial graphite anode prices remained stable. Post-holiday demand is gradually recovering, but ongoing cost pressures keep producers adopting a sales-driven production approach, maintaining tight supply and demand, with strong price expectations. However, due to lagging cost transmission, upstream cost increases have not yet fully passed downstream, so prices remain unchanged. Looking ahead, improving downstream demand and persistent cost pressures suggest artificial graphite anode prices may enter an upward trajectory.

Domestic natural graphite anode prices are generally stagnant this week. Rising raw material costs support a solid price floor, while downstream demand gradually recovers amid ample industry capacity, limiting upward price movement. Short-term, cost support and a loose supply-demand environment are unlikely to change significantly, and prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly.

Separator:

Separator market prices remain stable overall. Specifically, high-end wet-process separators: 5μm (5μ+2μ) at 1.56–1.86 yuan/m², 7μm (7μ+2μ) at 1.07–1.25 yuan/m², 9μm (9μ+3μ) at 1.06–1.24 yuan/m². Leading separator companies, due to capacity constraints, maintain high order saturation and plan slight price increases this month, supported by strong downstream demand, peak production season for power batteries, and high energy storage activity. In contrast, second-tier producers face resistance to price hikes due to limited bargaining power and fierce competition in mid- and low-end markets, making price transmission difficult.

Electrolyte:

Electrolyte market prices remain stable this week. On the cost side, the supply-demand balance for lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6) is loose; downstream electrolyte producers still hold substantial raw material inventories, leading to weak overall procurement. Some LiPF6 producers, aiming to clear inventories, are eager to sell and accept reasonable price reductions, continuing the downward trend. However, due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, prices for key solvents—methanol, ethylene oxide, and propylene oxide—have surged sharply, pushing solvent prices higher. Considering both cost factors, electrolyte prices are expected to remain stable in the short term. On the demand side, as March progresses, increased operational days and recovering EV demand are likely to boost electrolyte consumption. The industry continues to operate on a “sales-driven” basis, with higher production expected as order volumes increase. Overall, due to weak bargaining power and current supply-demand and cost fluctuations, electrolyte prices are expected to stay steady in the near term.

Sodium-ion:

This week, sodium-ion battery market steadily recovered, with continuous new orders from cell manufacturers. Leading lithium-ion companies are accelerating sodium-ion line deployment; several have completed line construction and launched new products, boosting industry confidence. Raw materials such as nickel sulfate and copper sulfate remain high-priced, exerting pressure on costs; phosphoric acid for polymer cathodes is also rising, further increasing cost pressures. Although current product prices have not yet adjusted significantly, there is an expectation of future upward movement.

Recycling:

On the raw material side, this week, lithium carbonate and nickel sulfate prices fluctuated, while cobalt sulfate remained flat. Regarding recycling of ternary cobalt lithium and iron lithium materials, for example, iron lithium wet-process black powder prices are currently 6,550–6,850 yuan per lithium point, slightly higher than last Thursday’s transaction center. As March begins, most iron lithium recyclers, with limited inventories post-Chinese New Year, have gradually started restocking after the Lantern Festival. Demand increases and inventory tightness have driven prices higher. However, early-week declines in lithium futures and spot prices caused a temporary dip, but overall, transaction centers moved upward. For ternary and raw materials, similar to wet-process iron lithium, some ternary recyclers depleted inventories after the holiday, but due to stable nickel and cobalt prices and incomplete logistics recovery, market activity was very cold last week. As logistics improve and procurement resumes, prices for ternary cathode powders and related materials have slightly increased.

Downstream and Terminal:

This week, prices for DC-side battery packs increased, driven by sharp raw material price rises. The average price for 5 MWh DC systems rose to 0.432 yuan/Wh, with 3.44/3.72 MWh units increasing to 0.439 yuan/Wh. On March 10, Anhui Wanyou High-tech Materials Co., Ltd. announced the winning bid for a 22.05 MW / 87.5 MWh user-side energy storage project.

The winning bidder is Anhui Dongfang Electric Power Construction Co., Ltd., with a bid amount of 68,681,328.52 yuan. The unit price based on capacity is approximately 0.785 yuan/Wh (785 yuan/kWh).