Guotai Haitong Zhou Tianle: China and the US are leading the competition in commercial spaceflight, with reusable rockets at a critical stage of technological breakthroughs

(Source: Caixin)

Currently, China is in a critical period for breakthroughs in reusable rocket technology. The focus of both the primary and secondary markets is heavily centered on rocket companies. Once reusable technology succeeds and significantly reduces costs, the investment logic will quickly shift to the construction of satellite internet constellations.

Since satellite internet was included in new infrastructure in 2020, and by 2026 the government work report will position aerospace as an “emerging pillar industry,” China’s commercial space industry is迎来 a historic development opportunity. In the context of global competition, how to grasp investment timing and leverage China’s unique advantages has become the core concern of the market.

On March 13, at the 2026 Shanghai Commercial Aerospace Conference’s Commercial Aerospace Investment and Financing Development and Insurance Services Sub-Forum, Guotai Haitong Policy and Industry Research Institute Chief Analyst Zhou Tianle shared in-depth insights on the investment logic of commercial aerospace and China’s advantages.

Zhou Tianle stated that the current global competition in commercial aerospace has evolved into a direct dialogue between China and the US. Over the past decade, the annual launch numbers for China and the US have increased from 22 to 90 and 211 respectively, now jointly accounting for over 70% of the world’s effective payloads in orbit. The US, relying on SpaceX, has achieved ultra-high-frequency launches and normalized reusable technology, while China, with dense scheduling and rapid progress by private enterprises, is closely following. In terms of market share, SpaceX has provided broadband services in about 100 countries and regions worldwide, while China’s commercial aerospace leverages domestic government and enterprise demand and consumer applications to form a solid foundation capable of supporting large constellation business cycles.

Regarding the investment logic of commercial aerospace, Zhou Tianle pointed out that China is currently in a key period for breakthroughs in reusable rocket technology, with primary and secondary markets focusing heavily on rocket companies. Once reusable technology is successful and costs are greatly reduced, the investment focus will shift to building satellite internet constellations. Only by significantly lowering launch costs can the number of satellites grow explosively, moving from “one rocket, one satellite” to “one rocket, multiple satellites,” even “one rocket, 36 satellites,” ultimately enabling rapid deployment of large-scale constellations.

As a core cost-reduction measure, reusable rockets will bring about orders-of-magnitude cost savings. Zhou Tianle explained that the first-stage rocket accounts for 50%–70% of total launch costs, and its reusability is key to lowering per-launch expenses. For example, SpaceX’s reusability has reduced launch costs from over $50 million to around $16 million, with future prospects of dropping below $10 million. As reuse cycles increase, marginal costs will further decrease.

When discussing the sequence of constellation construction, Zhou Tianle emphasized that satellite internet development must follow the objective order of “space segment before ground segment.” A certain scale of constellation must be built first to realize effective applications. Currently, the high cost of satellite platforms is a major obstacle, and future cost reductions depend heavily on domestically produced payloads and cost-cutting. Zhou Tianle noted that China has mature industrial chains in communications, such as Huawei and ZTE, which can be transferred to aerospace to create cost advantages. Additionally, materials like titanium alloys used in satellite platforms have significant potential for technological iteration and cost reduction.

Regarding external industry development, Zhou Tianle mentioned that policies and capital support have become strong drivers. Aerospace has become a key focus in the “14th Five-Year Plan.” Top-level policies continue to catalyze commercial aerospace development, with 15 provinces having issued dedicated policies for the industry. The “14th Five-Year Plan” explicitly aims to cultivate and expand emerging and future industries, implement industrial innovation projects, and promote the integrated development of innovation infrastructure, technology R&D, and product upgrades, accelerating the scale-up of aerospace and other strategic emerging industries.

On the capital side, the National Space Administration established China’s first national commercial aerospace development fund in November 2025, with an initial scale of 20 billion yuan, further improving the investment and financing system for the industry. Meanwhile, local governments actively support commercial aerospace funds; by October 2025, 15 provinces had introduced special policies, and 20 aerospace funds with a total scale exceeding 480 billion yuan have been formed, creating a trend of regional collaboration from point to surface. By 2025, China’s commercial aerospace industry had developed four major industrial belts and 28 specialized clusters, with complementary research, manufacturing, and application sectors, further enhancing regional synergy.

Zhou Tianle believes that China’s maritime launch technology has already taken the lead globally, effectively alleviating the resource constraints of land-based launch sites. Compared to land launches, maritime launches offer flexible launch points, safer fall zones, and the ability to launch at lower latitudes to increase payload capacity. Domestic commercial rockets have successfully verified this technology through multiple models, and bases like Dongfang Aerospace Port have enabled routine operations. Meanwhile, maritime recovery technology is accelerating, with leading domestic commercial aerospace companies rushing to develop maritime recovery platforms and control systems, expected to narrow the gap with international leaders like SpaceX in the near term.

In comparison between China and the US, the US, relying on SpaceX, has established a deep moat, with over 9,900 satellites in low Earth orbit, accounting for more than 40% of the global market share. SpaceX plans to go public in 2026, with an estimated valuation of $1.6 trillion, and has already generated hundreds of millions of dollars in broadband revenue and secured large military and government procurement orders, forming a complete commercial ecosystem. China, leveraging its late-mover advantage, adopts the most optimal technical routes and benefits from national heavy industry dividends to achieve leapfrog cost reductions. Unlike the vertically integrated oligopoly model of SpaceX, China has formed a “wolf pack” industry chain, with companies like China Academy of Space Technology, China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation, LandSpace, Tianbing Technology, and GalaxySpace collaborating across segments such as rocket manufacturing, satellite production, core components, and user terminals. This industry pattern emphasizes industrial integration first, then participation in global competition, which is more suited to China’s national conditions.

Looking ahead, with technological breakthroughs and cost reductions, Zhou Tianle predicts that China could capture 20%–30% of the global commercial space market, creating a “dual-hero” landscape alongside the US.