Social Financing Volume Increases 9.60 Trillion Yuan in First Two Months; Reasonable Growth Momentum Expected to Continue

According to the latest data released by the People’s Bank of China, as of the end of February 2026, the broad money supply (M2) stood at 349.22 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.0%. The growth rate remained the same as last month and was 2.0 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In January-February, the social financing scale increased by 9.60 trillion yuan, up 316.2 billion yuan year-on-year; during the same period, RMB loans increased by 5.61 trillion yuan.

Industry experts believe that both M2 and social financing scale growth remain at a relatively high level. Meanwhile, in the first two months of this year, credit scale maintained reasonable growth, and issuance was more stable and balanced.

“From January to February 2026, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 9.60 trillion yuan, which is 316.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year, reflecting a moderately loose monetary policy that strongly supports a stable economic start,” said Wen Bin, Chief Economist at China Minsheng Bank. Structurally, government bonds, on-balance-sheet loans, and corporate bonds were the main supports for the social financing scale increase in February, with on-balance-sheet loans and undiscounted bank acceptance bills being the main drivers of the year-on-year growth.

Since the beginning of this year, monetary policy has continued to implement a moderately loose stance. Several incremental policy measures involving structural monetary tools were announced at the start of the year. Additionally, liquidity in the banking system remains ample, and social financing conditions are relatively relaxed. On the fiscal side, the scale of newly issued government bonds reached nearly 12 trillion yuan, a record high, with issuance in the first two months growing by 12.2% and 8.5% year-on-year for national and local government bonds, respectively, providing strong support for social financing.

Regarding credit growth, loan scales have maintained reasonable expansion, and credit structure continues to optimize. By the end of February, the balance of all RMB loans was 277.52 trillion yuan, up 6.0% year-on-year. Structurally, inclusive small and micro loans amounted to 37.31 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.6%; medium- and long-term loans in the service sector excluding real estate reached 60.61 trillion yuan, up 9.8%. All these growth rates exceeded the growth of total loans during the same period.

Industry insiders believe that credit issuance in the first two months was more balanced and stable. The “loan surge” phenomenon in January has eased, and despite the shorter working days in February due to the Spring Festival holiday—three days fewer than last year—credit growth in February remained relatively steady.

Meanwhile, loan interest rates remain at historically low levels. In February, the weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans was about 3.1%, approximately 20 basis points lower than the same period last year; for new personal housing loans, the rate was also about 3.1%, about 10 basis points lower.

Looking ahead, Wen Bin believes that since March, enterprises have gradually resumed work after the holiday, and financing demand has accelerated. Coupled with the detailed implementation of various policies following the National Two Sessions, major projects under the “14th Five-Year Plan” are accelerating, which is expected to steadily release supporting financing needs. The total financial volume is likely to continue its reasonable growth trend.

“From a medium- to long-term perspective, as the economic and financial structures evolve, the proportion of direct financing in social finance is expected to continue increasing. There should be a further shift away from focusing solely on loan quantities toward paying more attention to social finance and monetary supply, emphasizing structural trend changes. Additionally, improving the efficiency of existing funds and optimizing capital allocation will make financial supply and demand more aligned,” Wen Bin said.