Caixin Survey | February New Loans Expected to Decline Year-over-Year, Weak Bond Issuance Weighs on Social Financing

WealthCoffee · 2026-03-16T06:56:38+00:00

February credit disbursement is expected to be limited, with new loans and credit bond issuance declining year-over-year. Affected by the Spring Festival holidays, economists predict February new RMB loans of approximately 949.6 billion yuan, which is lower than the same period last year.

WealthCoffee

2026-03-16 06:56:38

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[Caixin] February has traditionally been a “small month” for credit issuance. Coupled with the Spring Festival holiday, new loans are expected to increase less year-on-year; overall credit bond issuance remains weak. Although government bond issuance maintains a certain level of strength, it also shows a slight increase compared to the previous year, dragging down the growth rate of social financing.

A recent survey by Caixin Media of 13 domestic and foreign institutions shows that economists’ average forecast for new RMB loans in February 2026 is 949.6 billion yuan, slightly below the 1.01 trillion yuan in the same period of 2025. The forecast range is from 500 billion to 1.37 trillion yuan, with a previous value of 4.71 trillion yuan.

Yang Fan, Chief Macro and Policy Analyst at CITIC Securities, estimates that new credit in February will be about 500 billion yuan, which is at the lower end of this forecast range. She pointed out that February has always been a “small month” for credit issuance seasonally, and this year, the Spring Festival holiday has added to the effect, so loan issuance may be lower than last year.

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