Recent trends in US oil prices have actually been quietly sounding the alarm for the market.

Data shows that the average US gasoline price has surged to $3.70 per gallon, up a full $1 from the low point in December last year, with gains approaching 28% since the Iran conflict. Oil price movements at this level have never been purely an energy issue—they're a signal that macro variables are starting to take effect.

From a historical perspective, once oil prices rise rapidly, they tend to form a familiar transmission chain: rising energy costs → inflation expectations pick up → monetary policy becomes more cautious. In other words, with each jump in oil prices, the market's fantasies about monetary easing diminish.

For financial markets, this environment typically means two things:

First, inflation re-enters the center of discussion;

Second, liquidity expectations may tighten again.

So often, what the market really needs to watch isn't the K-line chart, but oil prices—this "macro thermometer."

When energy prices start to accelerate, it usually signals that the pressure on the global economy is quietly intensifying as well.