Shanghai Composite Index opens lower and rises steadily, maintaining above 4100 points; institutions advise paying attention to the main performance trend

Changsha Evening News, Palm Changsha, March 13th (All-media Reporter Zhou Congxiao) On the 13th, the three major A-share indices opened lower collectively, but showed resilience during the session. Oil and gas, coal, and wind power sectors defied the trend and strengthened, while the technology growth track continued to adjust, further intensifying market structural differentiation.

News: Multiple domestic and international factors intertwine, soaring oil prices become a key variable

From the news perspective, international oil prices surged significantly overnight, with Brent crude settling above $100 per barrel for the first time since August 2022, at $100.46, up 9.22%. As a result, concerns about rising global inflation intensified, and the three major U.S. stock indices fell more than 1.5% in response.

Domestically, policy warmth persists. Tax data shows that from January to February this year, China’s technological innovation and development have been strong, with rapid growth in innovative industries. Meanwhile, the annual dividend season has begun, with 46 listed companies disclosing cash dividend plans, totaling nearly 60 billion yuan, about 3.5 times the same period last year, providing valuation support for the market.

In terms of liquidity, the central bank conducted a 37.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation. With 44.8 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing, net liquidity was drained by 7.3 billion yuan. Additionally, the adjustment of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board indices such as the STAR 50 and STAR 100 will be implemented after market close, likely triggering passive fund rebalancing.

Market features: Energy chain expands across sectors, technology and resources play “see-saw”

The market shows a typical “resource strength, technology weakness” pattern. The energy rally further spread into the power sector, with green energy becoming the most sustained recent trend. Market analysis suggests that the UK announced zero tariffs on imported goods for offshore wind manufacturing, combined with high domestic wind power bidding, creating a dual drive. Guosen Securities’ research report indicates that domestic wind power new installations may grow by 10% to 20% by 2026, with saturated orders and a boom-bust cycle both evident domestically and internationally.

Institutional views: Continued oscillation and recovery, focus on performance in style rotation

Regarding today’s market performance and future trends, several institutions have released their latest opinions.

Hualong Securities believes that technically, the overall A-share market remains in a oscillating recovery pattern, with further upward movement requiring volume support. Caixin Securities points out that as the Middle East situation’s impact diminishes and the Two Sessions conclude, the market will gradually return to its normal rhythm. However, uncertainties remain regarding the energy supply crisis caused by Middle East tensions, and concerns about global inflation continue to rise. With earnings season approaching, market focus on performance risks increases, and the market is expected to continue wide-range fluctuations.

Bohai Securities emphasizes that even if external markets fluctuate more due to Middle East factors and oil prices, A-shares have shown good resilience. As the first-quarter earnings disclosure period approaches, market attention will shift further toward performance.

Huaxi Securities’ research suggests that by 2026, the main structural theme is shifting from technology to inflation-linked chains. For imported inflation, focus on energy, non-ferrous metals, and agricultural products; for endogenous inflation, attention on traditional industries like chemicals, steel, coal, and building materials in the “anti-involution” context.

Market analysis: Accelerated rotation and response strategies

Overall, the current A-share market is in a complex environment of “external disturbances and internal support.” The surge in oil prices has raised inflation concerns, suppressing risk appetite, but domestic policy expectations and incremental capital inflows provide support at the lower end.

From capital behavior, ETF funds have seen significant net inflows over the past week, but structural differentiation is evident. This phenomenon warrants reflection: after resource prices continue to rise, risk of chasing highs accumulates, while well-adjusted growth sectors may be nurturing new opportunities.

Looking ahead, market participants generally believe that during the earnings season from late March to April, the “performance first” logic will likely return. Investors should maintain discipline, balance resource and technology sectors, dividends and growth, and wait for new market anchors to emerge.