The GTC conference opens tomorrow morning; can AI hardware make a comeback?

Friday’s market summary in one sentence: High-flying stocks collectively plummeted, and short-term sentiment cooled down. [Taogu Ba]
The index didn’t fall much, with the Shanghai Composite down 0.81% and the ChiNext down 0.22%, but the impact was significant. Over 3,500 stocks declined, with more than ten hitting the daily limit, including ShunNa Shares, Yunnan Energy Holdings, and Yasheng Group. Huagong Tech dropped over 7%, Guangxun Tech hit the limit down, and UCloud dropped over 10% in the late trading.
Chemicals remained relatively strong, with Jinniu Chemical hitting three consecutive limits, Luxin Technology two. Wind power stocks like Dajin Heavy Industry and Tongyu Heavy Industry hit two limits; Chuang Electric and Huadian Energy surged four consecutive limits; China Power Construction hit the limit up.
However, most stocks either rose sharply then fell back or simply moved sideways.
Friday’s market essentially set the stage for weekend news—old cycles are receding, and new directions are brewing.

Over the weekend, major news broke. Here are some key points.

1. Middle East conflict escalation, oil and the RMB emerge
   The US and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran’s Halek Island, severely disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, with only 77 ships passing since March, compared to 1,229 last year at this time. International oil prices soared, with WTI up over 8.5% for the week and Brent up over 11%.
   But the most explosive weekend news wasn’t oil prices but—Iran considering allowing some oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, provided the oil is settled in RMB.
   What does this mean? About 20% of global crude oil trade passes through this strait. If implemented, it would mean a large portion of oil previously settled in USD would switch to RMB pricing and payment. This isn’t just about the CIPS system; it’s a loosening of the petrodollar system.
   On the A-share side, the direct beneficiaries are cross-border payments and digital currencies. Lakala, Sifang Jingchuang, and China Oil Capital are likely to attract capital next week. Chemical prices will continue to rise, as Iran is a major exporter of fertilizers and methanol; supply constraints will push prices higher.

2. GTC Conference kicks off early tomorrow, AI’s Spring Festival is here
   NVIDIA’s GTC conference begins at 2 a.m. Beijing time on March 17, with Jensen Huang’s keynote. Market focus: Rubin chip mass production pace, Feynman new architecture, and AI Agent ecosystem layout.
   If Rubin’s mass production exceeds expectations, upstream materials like PCBs, CCLs, and copper foil will benefit. If Feynman’s architecture gains traction, the value of a single-chip PCB could reach $300–500, with huge potential.
   On the A-share side, optical modules, PCBs, and memory chips had already adjusted on Friday. If Monday surpasses expectations, these sectors could rebound; if not, they may continue to be under pressure.

3. Brain-computer interface approved, a milestone in commercialization
   The world’s first invasive brain-computer interface medical device has been approved for market, aiding recovery of hand grasp in quadriplegic patients. This marks a transition from lab to clinical application.
   On the A-share side, the concept of brain-computer interfaces has been hot for a few waves, mostly as thematic hype. With product landing, the logic is more solid. But note, early commercialization performance is hard to realize; focus on companies with core technology reserves, not just themes.

4. Commercial space industry conference, Zhaomi plans to launch satellites
   The second Commercial Space Industry Development Conference will be held in Shenzhen on March 17-18. More excitingly, Zhaomi plans to launch its first space computing satellite next week.
   This sector has been hot before, with news-driven surges each time. If this conference plus satellite launch can sustain momentum, it could form a trend. Companies like Farsight, Qifan Cable, and Lanshi Heavy Equipment are worth watching.

Next week outlook:
First, at the index level, Friday already signaled some risk, with high-flying stocks correcting collectively and sentiment clearing out. Over the weekend, the central bank’s reverse repurchase of 500 billion yuan and continued liquidity easing expectations suggest no systemic risk for the index.

Second, sector rotation. Weekend news focused on a few themes: RMB oil trade (cross-border payments, chemical price hikes), GTC conference (AI hardware), brain-computer interfaces (medical tech), and commercial space (satellites). With so many directions, not all will rise; next week will see sector differentiation.
My judgment: The RMB oil trade theme has the strongest logic and biggest impact, likely to be the main line next week. Chemical price hikes are obvious; cross-border payments are a hidden theme—both can be watched together. The GTC conference offers structural opportunities—if there are surprises in PCB, optical modules, etc., they can be bought on dips but avoid chasing highs. Brain-computer interfaces and commercial space are themes to watch; wait for signs of sustained growth before acting.

Third, rhythm. Friday’s sentiment hit a low, likely to recover on Monday. But who recovers determines the next direction. If funds flow into AI hardware, tech remains the main theme; if funds rush into RMB oil trade, style shifts.

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