Entering a seasonal consumption off-season, pork prices in Shandong fell 2.03% month-over-month, and egg prices continued their downward trend.

As the seasonal consumption slowdown begins, demand for pork, eggs, and other products weakens, leading to price fluctuations and declines. According to the latest statistics released by the Shandong Provincial Animal Husbandry Station, pork prices slightly decreased this week, with an average price of 22.24 yuan/kg, down 18.24% year-on-year and 2.03% from the previous week. Additionally, the weekly average selling price of eggs across the province is 6.70 yuan/kg, a 13.99% decrease year-on-year and 1.62% from last week. Looking ahead, as demand gradually recovers in late March, driven by food processing and group catering needs, the egg market demand may gradually improve.

This week, the supply and demand for live pigs experienced a weak adjustment, but demand weakened more significantly, putting pressure on pig prices to fall. Currently, the average price for fat pigs sold across the province is 11.39 yuan/kg, down 24.67% year-on-year and 4.77% from last week. Moreover, the pig-to-grain ratio this week is 4.83:1, down 27.53% year-on-year and 4.77% from last week. According to monitoring, the current average loss per pig for self-breeding and self-rearing is about 90 yuan.

On the demand side, as the traditional consumption off-season begins, slaughterhouse procurement intentions are moderate, operating rates are low, and recovery in catering and group dining sectors has fallen short of expectations. Households mainly maintain stockpiles in refrigerators, and retail sales are slow, providing limited support for pig prices. Monitoring shows that the total transaction volume of pork in 17 markets across the province increased by 1.96% year-on-year but decreased by 1.67% week-on-week, with pork prices under pressure and declining weakly.

Looking ahead, after late March, with the involvement of speculative demand such as secondary fattening and slaughtering, and the rising resistance from breeders to low prices, along with the reopening of school canteens boosting pork consumption, prices are expected to stabilize after hitting bottom, though large increases are unlikely.

Additionally, positive policy news has emerged. According to a notice issued by China Storage and Transportation Network, on March 4th, the central government will conduct a bidding auction for the reserve frozen pork, with 10,000 tons listed. The initiation of central frozen pork stockpiling is beneficial for stabilizing market expectations and preventing excessive price drops. Continued observation is needed to assess its impact on breeders’ reluctance to sell and its role in supporting prices.

Egg prices this week saw the weekly average price across the province at 6.70 yuan/kg, down 13.99% year-on-year and 1.62% from last week. The full cost of egg chicken farming is approximately 6.8-7.0 yuan/kg, so egg prices are under pressure, and overall egg farming is in a loss zone. However, some highly integrated and well-branded egg producers still show profitability.

On the demand side, trade mainly focuses on digesting inventories, with limited consumption support, leading to falling egg prices. Monitoring indicates that the transaction volume in 17 monitored counties increased by 5.37% year-on-year but decreased by 1.25% week-on-week. With ample supply and slowing market digestion, egg prices are under downward pressure. In the near future, as egg prices continue to hit bottom, farmers’ reluctance to sell is increasing, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range.

As the seasonal consumption off-season begins, demand for beef and mutton weakens, and prices continue to fluctuate downward. Monitoring shows that the weekly transaction volume for beef increased by 7.36% year-on-year but decreased by 1.14% week-on-week; for mutton, it increased by 14.52% year-on-year but decreased by 4.72% week-on-week.

Currently, the average price of beef across the province has slightly declined below 67 yuan, at 66.99 yuan/kg, up 20.90% year-on-year but down 0.04% from last week. The average price of mutton has weakened, falling below 77 yuan, at 76.93 yuan/kg, up 6.85% year-on-year and down 0.10% week-on-week. The overall decline in beef and mutton prices is mainly due to the post-Chinese New Year off-season, with supply and demand adjusting phase-wise.

Looking ahead, in the short term, the demand decline for beef and mutton is unlikely to reverse, and prices are expected to remain under pressure with continued fluctuations. However, due to ongoing capacity reduction and rising international beef prices, the price fluctuations may narrow. In the long term, the market for beef and mutton has significant potential, especially with the implementation of national consumption stimulation policies, which could accelerate cyclical growth and lead to better prices.

Furthermore, the price of raw milk has also declined under pressure, currently at 3.03 yuan/kg, down 0.66% year-on-year and 0.66% week-on-week. The decline is mainly due to supply exceeding demand. Currently, the peak calving season for dairy cows is underway, with milk production entering a high phase, while seasonal demand remains weak, putting downward pressure on milk prices. Looking ahead, due to the ongoing supply surplus, milk prices are likely to stay under pressure in the near future. However, since the average purchase price of raw milk remains below cost, industry losses continue to drive capacity reduction, which may signal a key turning point at the bottom of the cycle.

Corn and soybean meal prices remain stable, while wheat bran prices have weakened. This week, the average price of corn in the province is 2.36 yuan/kg, up 3.96% year-on-year and unchanged from last week; soybean meal is 3.20 yuan/kg, down 14.67% year-on-year and stable week-on-week; wheat bran is 1.87 yuan/kg, up 8.72% year-on-year and down 0.53% from last week.

Reporter: Su Ran Photography: Su Ran Editor: Chen Tongtong Proofreading: Gao Xin