Japan couldn't hold on first.

On March 11, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced a decision that breaks a 48-year tradition: Japan will release its oil reserves independently starting March 16, including civilian reserves sufficient for 15 days of consumption and national reserves for one month.

This is nearly 24 hours earlier than the International Energy Agency’s announcement of releasing the largest-ever reserve of 400 million barrels of oil, and it is the first time since Japan’s oil reserve system was established that the country has released its national reserves independently.

Japan can no longer hold out.

If you land at Kitakyushu Airport and look down through the window, you’ll see strange white spots floating on the sea surface. That is the White Island National Oil Reserve Base. On the massive artificial island, countless white oil tanks are arranged in rows, like a line of canned goods waiting to be opened, quietly floating on the Sea of Japan.

[Image of Japan’s oil reserve site]

These “energy cans” are Japan’s accumulated assets over half a century.

In 1973, the Middle Eastern oil embargo plunged Japan into panic. Oil prices soared, toilet paper was snatched up, and inflation surged. This nightmare led to the creation of Japan’s oil reserve system.

In 1975, Japan’s National Diet passed the Oil Stockpiling Law, requiring private companies to hold reserves equivalent to 90 days of supply. But since Japan relies almost entirely on imported crude oil, in 1978, the government began establishing a national crude oil reserve. Over the following decades, these white oil tanks were rarely opened.

The last “opening” was in 2022, influenced by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Japan responded to the International Energy Agency’s call and coordinated with global efforts to release oil. Previously, Japan had only followed others’ lead when opening reserves, never opening its own reserves alone.

But yesterday, that rule was broken.

For Japan, accustomed to “following others,” this move may be more unsettling than the rise in oil prices itself. When people start eating their stored food, it indicates that the external situation has become untenable.

When announcing the decision to release reserves, Sanae Takaichi said, “From later this month, Japan’s crude oil imports are expected to decrease significantly.”

It is well known that Japan is resource-scarce, with domestic production accounting for only 0.2% of the country’s oil supply. According to the Japan Petroleum Association, Japan nearly entirely depends on imports, with about 96% coming from the Middle East. For Japan, the route that cannot be taken is the Strait of Hormuz.

With oil not coming in from outside, Japan can only change its consumption based on its reserves.

According to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan’s total oil reserves are about 470 million barrels by the end of 2025, enough for 254 days of consumption.

On the surface, Japan’s reserves seem sufficient. But in reality, Japan is not wealthy.

The day after the announcement, Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party held an emergency joint meeting, urgently recommending measures to ensure energy stability and address disruptions in maritime transportation, urging the government to find alternative oil supply sources and channels that do not pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

This sense of urgency is not unfounded.

According to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, as of March 9, the average nationwide gasoline price in Japan was 161.8 yen per liter, rising for four consecutive weeks and breaking the 160-yen mark for the first time in three months. A Japanese oil information center predicts that oil prices may rise another 20 yen next week.

The Japanese government plans to restart gasoline subsidies in an attempt to keep prices around 170 yen per liter. But the rise in international oil prices far exceeds what subsidies can offset.

Despite the International Energy Agency’s announcement of releasing oil reserves on the 12th, oil prices continued to rise that day, with Brent crude reaching a high of $101.59 per barrel, surging 10.45% intraday. WTI crude also jumped nearly 10%, reaching a high of $95.97 per barrel.

Markets are more honest than governments; releasing oil reserves has not eased anxiety.

According to Reuters analysis, this historic reserve release is essentially a “stopgap measure.” It depletes the last buffers of countries. If the conflict persists or escalates further, the buffer capacity of oil-consuming nations will be greatly reduced.

In other words, reserves are stockpiles, imports are flows. When flows stop, even large stockpiles will eventually run out.

Akutagawa Tomo, chief researcher at Mitsubishi UFJ Market Research & Consulting, warned that if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for a long time, it will cause a “fatal blow” to Japan’s economy. Nomura Research Institute economist Tobei Kine estimates that in the most pessimistic scenario, Japan’s real GDP could be reduced by 0.65% within a year, with inflation rising by 1.14%. The risk of stagflation—simultaneous recession and inflation—is approaching.

This is only the direct impact; combined with the pressure of yen depreciation, Japan’s economy will face a massive storm.

If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked long-term, how long can Japan’s 254 days of reserves last?

No one knows the answer.

“Sanlihe” Studio