3.15 Small Ice Point

A week has passed again, and it went by very quickly, especially the weekend. Objectively, the time is the same length, but subjectively, it feels like the weekend passes even faster. [Taogu Ba]

When we enjoy activities we like (such as gaming or gatherings), our brains release dopamine. This neurotransmitter speeds up our internal clock, making us feel like physical time has lengthened, but psychologically, it feels like time flies. Conversely, boring tasks reduce dopamine release, causing our biological clock to run “slower,” making every minute feel torturous.

After a week of trading, let’s review: Overall participation still feels challenging.

The index first declined, then rose, then declined again, showing a small overall fluctuation.

Sector rotation was quite fast, with many directions. Looking back, the most sustained were electric and some AI hardware segments. The main trend for electric appeared around Wednesday, strengthening on Thursday, which allowed for a small main trend to be identified. However, the problem is that while there are multiple strong turns, each upward phase lacks continuity. The peak on Thursday was sharply corrected on Friday, lacking persistence, making trading somewhat uncomfortable.

This is roughly the pattern of a wave-based theme.

Electric computing can multiple times strengthen, but each wave’s persistence is poor. When one wave stalls, it drops. That’s the general pattern.

Another better pattern involves multiple strong turns, each lasting long enough, like December’s commercial aerospace.

Additionally, the group rally performed well in the first half of the week. Yunnan Energy, Huasheng, Aerospace, Shunna, and others gradually moved upward in small trends. On Thursday and Friday, they broke below the 5-day moving average, signaling the end. To be more straightforward, just look at the Tonghuashun hot stocks index (although Friday’s big bearish candle brought it back to the starting point, it still experienced a small rally).

Overall, based on personal trading experience, I would rate this situation a 3 out of 5.

Another deep feeling is that in the short term, especially on the right side of the chart, the tracks are becoming increasingly crowded. It’s important to adapt to the new environment as early and well as possible, shifting towards high-value and high-volume trends, which may also be a major trend.

Next week outlook:

① Index: From the overall weekend atmosphere, it’s somewhat冷淡 (cool/dull), especially after Friday’s dual decline in sentiment indicators.

Before the market opens, “Hello brothers.”

After the close, “Brothers, how are you?”

The index should maintain a mindset of not panicking when it falls, and not getting overly excited when it rises. Especially in this highly volatile range, both support levels downward and resistance levels upward are strong. It’s likely to continue oscillating within this range.

② Sector: Regarding the small dragon shrimp computing power, it failed to break out mainly because of old issues—lack of market synergy. Today you strengthen your Tuo Wei, tomorrow my Huasheng, endless mutual blockades. It’s like after January 13th’s commercial aerospace—every time it stabilizes and breaks through, expecting a second wave, it gets hit hard. Even the most passionate investors, after multiple injuries, lose interest. The same applies to computing power.

Currently, the more resilient sectors include electric, chemical, batteries, some AI hardware segments, and stocks like storage chips.

Electric: Initially driven by power grid logic (Xidian, Hanlan), then by computing synergy (Jinkai, Nengke), and by Thursday and Friday, by wind power going overseas to Europe (Dajin Heavy Industries). The older, weaker stocks fell behind, while core stocks like Jinkai, Nengke, and China Energy Construction still stay above the 5-day moving average. The overall internal structure of the sector looks okay; it depends on how strong the market rebound is. The strength is moderate, so it’s just okay.

Chemical: Methanol price increases boosted gains for companies like Jinniu and Chitianhua. Previously, epoxy propylene (Hongbaoli), TMP (Baichuan), and phosphorus chemicals (Jinzhengda) also reacted to this trend. Last April, chemical stocks experienced another rally. Notably, Zhengdan and Zhongyida showed multi-wave patterns, which might also reflect some market memory variables. It’s better to see if the second wave can sustain.

Batteries: The logic is somewhat niche. Subjectively, it feels hard to trigger a big wave, but since the market has feedback, it shouldn’t be ignored outright. We’ll see if there are any unexpected behaviors.

③ Focus more on fast rotation; when the market is hard to trade, slow down the pace.

The overall environment isn’t great, but it’s a good time to accumulate experience. When conditions improve, it will be just right to apply what you’ve learned.

Thanks to the support of seven brothers:

This article is only a personal review and does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risks; please proceed cautiously.