Guotai Haotong: The high base effect causes a pullback in domestic equipment procurement; the export process of high-end medical devices is accelerating.

Guotai Haitong releases a research report maintaining an “Overweight” rating for the medical device industry. The large-scale equipment upgrades promoted by the government are gradually becoming routine and specialized, significantly boosting procurement enthusiasm across medical institutions at all levels. The demand for innovative diagnostic and therapeutic equipment such as imaging and radiotherapy is rapidly releasing. As the equipment upgrade policies continue to be implemented, they are expected to drive long-term growth in medical equipment procurement. We recommend medical device companies that are likely to benefit from the policy-driven equipment upgrades and performance recovery.

Guotai Haitong’s main points are as follows:

In January–February 2026, procurement of new medical equipment declined due to high base effects

According to data from Zhongcheng Shuke, on a month-over-month basis, in February 2026, the scale of new equipment bidding and procurement decreased: MRI down 4.6%, CT down 30.2%, DR down 3.6%, ultrasound down 31.6%, endoscopes down 21.3%, and surgical robots down 4.8%. Year-over-year, in February 2026, the scale of new equipment bidding and procurement declined: MRI down 14.6%, CT down 27.5%, DR down 24.4%, ultrasound down 26.2%, endoscopes down 12.2%, and surgical robots down 14.1%. On a company-specific basis for February, United Imaging MRI grew 82.5%, United Imaging CT declined 3.1%, Mindray ultrasound declined 21.2%, KaiLi ultrasound grew 36.0%, and KaiLi endoscopes declined 2.6%.

Equipment upgrade policies continue to be implemented, which may drive long-term growth in medical equipment procurement

In 2024, the four ministries jointly issued the “Notice on Promoting Equipment Renewal in the Medical and Health Field,” which clearly states the goal of increasing investment in medical and health equipment by over 25% by 2027 compared to 2023, and upgrading high-end equipment to the level of middle- and high-income countries.

Meanwhile, in 2024, various provinces and cities across China have announced large-scale procurement plans for domestic medical equipment upgrades. Since 2025, the large-scale equipment upgrade initiatives promoted by the government are gradually becoming routine and specialized, significantly boosting procurement enthusiasm at all levels of medical institutions. The demand for innovative diagnostic and therapeutic equipment such as imaging and radiotherapy is rapidly releasing.

The export structure of medical devices is accelerating towards high-tech, with steady improvement in international competitiveness

According to data from the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Medicines and Health Products, in 2025, China’s exports of diagnostic and therapeutic products reached $24.057 billion, an 8.12% increase year-over-year, accounting for nearly half of total medical device exports. High value-added categories experienced explosive growth, with PET and SPECT imaging equipment exports soaring 175.20% YoY, and surgical robot exports increasing by 368.1%. Exports of endoscopes, artificial joints, hearing aids, MR, artificial kidneys, invasive ventilators, implants, and other ophthalmic instruments and devices all grew at double-digit rates. Additionally, core components of high-end imaging equipment such as X-ray generators and X-ray tubes also saw rapid growth. Overall, as China’s medical technology continues to upgrade, related products are penetrating the global market more rapidly due to their high cost-performance ratio, accelerating the transformation of export structure towards high-tech industries, and steadily enhancing the industry’s international competitiveness.

Risk warnings

Disappointment in equipment procurement recovery, policy implementation shortfalls, product price fluctuations, and other risks.