[Red envelope] Monday, look here!

Foreword [Taoguba]

In the A-share market, This tumultuous world, Every investor involved Is like a toddler taking hesitant steps, Carrying dreams of the future, stumbling forward, Yet often falling in the unpredictable market.

When we first enter the market, we are full of enthusiasm and ignorance, thinking we can easily seize opportunities and reap profits. But when faced with sudden declines and losses, it’s like a child’s first fall—full of grievance and unwillingness, panicking and feeling dejected.

But tears, complaints, and crying are never good remedies for problems. After a brief emotional release, we must realize that investing is never a smooth path, but a journey of self-discipline filled with challenges.

Every loss is a lesson the market teaches us; every fall is a test on the road to growth.

Some choose to give up after falling, leaving the market entirely, becoming just a passerby. True progressors, however, wipe away tears, calm their minds, grit their teeth, and stand up again, learning from their falls and continuing to explore.

We will again stumble due to misjudgments, feel lost amid market fluctuations, and make mistakes driven by greed and fear. But it is these repeated falls and rises that help us shed naivety and impatience, learn to respect the market, analyze rationally, control risks, and stay true to our original intentions. From blindly chasing gains and selling in panic to studying market patterns diligently; from emotional trading to maintaining a calm mindset—those past pains and setbacks have become armor on our path forward.

1. Trading Review:

2. Huasheng Tiancheng: Cleared out today. From initial participation + one additional position, to halving on Thursday, and fully exiting during Friday’s trading. Huasheng’s recent trend aligned with trend-following rules, and the participation points were appropriate.

3. Yasheng Group: Bought in around -2% underwater on Tuesday. Anticipated a rebound the next day. On Wednesday, it hit the limit-up as expected, then cut half, leaving the rest. On Thursday, successfully upgraded to the second limit-up. Due to solid profits and trend-like movement, it continued strong throughout the day. On Friday, it was weak in the morning and again hit the limit-down in the afternoon.

4. Tenglong Co.: Entered during the bidding, with about 6% unrealized gains. Emphasized on Thursday to exit at the intra-day high the next day. On Friday, exited half during bidding and at the close.

5. Yuegui Co.: Entered in January following a trend pattern, then exited near cost after a correction. Re-entered after breaking above the short-term moving average. On Friday, the bidding provided a good opportunity for adding positions or entering anew.

6. Market Breakdown:

(1) Index Overview: Shanghai Composite down 0.81%, Shenzhen Component down 0.65%, ChiNext down 0.22%; total turnover 2.4 trillion yuan, with a decrease of 416 billion; over 3,800 stocks declined, with volatility and adjustments throughout the day, ending with a sharp decline.

(2) Continuous Limit-up Teams:

The overall sentiment for consecutive limit-ups remains weak. Yunnan Energy’s break of the 7-limit barrier was a key obstacle, making it the first to break the ice after the holiday. Overall, the recent strong performance of Yunnan Energy exceeded expectations, with funds attempting to guide new groupings. However, short-term market sentiment is poor, and during the meeting period, regulators have not relaxed restrictions. Therefore, the sustainability of various models should be viewed with reduced expectations, mainly for arbitrage. Today, Yunnan Energy hit the limit-down, marking a cycle that can be summarized as Yunnan Energy’s “power calculation” cycle, as a core phase and the main leader of the theme. The second phase involves Shun Na Co. and Han Lan Co., and the third phase is Huadian Energy. The first two phases saw limit-down closures, and next Monday is likely to continue this downward trend. Tuesday or Wednesday could mark the start of a new cycle. Be patient and hold your hands steady during these days.

First phase of power calculation:

Second phase of power calculation:

Third phase of power calculation:

3. Sector Analysis:

(1) Wind Power Equipment

• Key stocks: Tongyu Heavy Industry (20 consecutive days), Dajin Heavy Industry (2-limit-up), Tianshun Wind Power, Jixin Technology; with Sun Moon Co., Tian Neng Heavy Industry, Taisheng Wind Power leading gains.
• Catalysts:
  1. UK will abolish 33 wind turbine component import tariffs from April 1, with blades and cables tariff dropping to zero, releasing £22 billion investment, accelerating North Sea offshore wind installations.
  2. European data centers’ offshore wind power demand surges; ICIS forecasts about 24GW new offshore wind demand for European data centers by 2035.
  3. Green power extension hype, with funds grouping in low positions.
• Risks: Two days of volume acceleration, insufficient fund support next week may intensify differentiation. Watch short-term rhythm.

(2) Chemicals/Fertilizers

• Key stocks: Sanfangxiang, Lu Hua Technology (2-limit-up); Jinjingda, Hongbaoli, Chitianhua limit-up; Chuanjinnuo, Nongda Technology, Luzhou Chemical lead gains.
• Catalysts:
  1. Strait of Hormuz blockade, Iran’s urea exports hindered, tightening global fertilizer supply chain.
  2. Domestic spring planting season, port inventories low, potassium and phosphate fertilizers prices rising.
  3. Price increase cycle for chemical products, sector prosperity improving.
• Risks: Divergence increases intra-day, mid-to-late stocks retreat significantly, likely oscillating upward.

(3) Controlled Nuclear Fusion

• Key stocks: Lanshi Heavy Equipment, China Nuclear Construction, Jiangsu Shentong limit-up; China Nuclear Technology, Changfu Co., HeDuan Smart, Rongfa Nuclear Power follow gains.
• Catalysts:
  1. China joins the “Triple Nuclear Energy Declaration,” aiming for global nuclear capacity to triple by 2050.
  2. Energy security + low-carbon transition + computing power demand, nuclear power’s strategic value reassessed.
  3. Institutions favor uranium mines, small modular reactors (SMRs), nuclear fuel, and full industry chain equipment suppliers.
• Risks: Mainly driven by themes, watch for sector rotation and profit realization.

(4) Computing Power Leasing / Cloud Services / CPO

• Key stocks: Meili Cloud, Huasheng Tiancheng limit-down; UCloud (Yunji), Guangxun Technology, Yunnan Energy Holdings limit-down; Huagong Technology down over 7%.
• Catalysts:
  1. Previous gains and profit-taking, funds concentrated on cashing out.
  2. High-level track sentiment cooling, loss effects spreading.
• Risks: Continued retreat at high levels may spread to other high-position themes.

(5) Nonferrous Metals & Tungsten

• Key stocks: Zhongwu High-tech, Zhangyuan Tungsten limit-down; Xiamen Tungsten, Xianglu Tungsten plunge.
• Catalysts:
  1. High valuations pressure on cyclical stocks, funds rotate from high to low.
  2. Price increase expectations peak, profit-taking intensifies.
• Risks: Overall weakness in minor metals, short-term pressure.

(6) Power Grid Equipment

• Key stocks: Zhongdian Xinlong, Shun Na Co. limit-down; Zeyu Intelligent, Han Lan Co. down over 9%.
• Catalysts: Previously hot high-level stocks, sentiment decline triggers profit-taking.
• Risks: Trend break at high levels, uncertain recovery.

4. Tomorrow’s Opportunities:

(1) First limit-up to second limit-up: Tian’e Co. + Hengdian DMEGC. (2) Continuous tracking of limit-up teams: none currently. (3) Rebound pattern: Baobian Electric.

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