March 15 - Next Week's Outlook (Algorithmic Large Cycle Divergence Not Yet Concluded)

Weekend news is quite chaotic, and geopolitical issues are unpredictable, so the market performance is also disorderly…

These days, I have a cold and my mind isn’t in the best state. Just a brief chat.

From a macro perspective, if geopolitical tensions persist, the Fed’s rate cut expectations may be delayed, which could suppress tech stocks lacking certain performance support…

On Friday, popular stocks at mid-to-high levels were collectively pushed to the bottom, seeming to signal a major emotional retreat… but we can’t draw a definitive conclusion yet; we need to continue observing Monday’s feedback…

In fact, attentive investors will notice that it’s just a matter of quantifying high and low cuts… First, the logic of the electronic computation collaboration hasn’t been disproven; a short-term rally followed by a two-day pullback is reasonable. Overall, the electric and computing sectors still lean more toward the electric side (wind, coal, thermal, nuclear power)… The underlying logic is energy substitution… and as summer peak electricity usage approaches, power shortages become more acute. Subjectively, electric + computing is moving in a large-cycle trend…

In the short-term speculative environment, hitting the daily limit and turning over five times is a significant threshold. In theory, Monday’s funds will prioritize the top-opening stocks in Central South, so tomorrow Huadian Energy will lose its scarcity. Although Friday’s green stocks were blocked, tomorrow’s likely expectation is a break in the streak… and the Central South stocks might also break if the decline continues…

So tomorrow’s focus is whether Green Power’s “Nuclear Button A” is pressed or if it re-bounces to form a 3+1 reverse-structure with Huadian. This will serve as a key indicator for speculative sentiment and market direction…

Looking at the new rally from Friday’s lows and other leading stocks, since there’s no dominant leader effect, Monday is likely to be a rotation market. During rotation, there are strong rotation sectors and weak ones… Power-related sectors will still mainly lead the strong rotation…

Next week’s keywords:

1. Overseas orders (wind power, energy storage, photovoltaics, generators, grid components)

2. Annual report performance (storage chips, PCB, optical communication, and other advanced manufacturing), beware of performance warning ST stocks…

3. Chemical price increase cycle (if the Taiwan Strait remains closed, the expectation will persist; if navigation resumes, there could be a sudden drop)

4. Safety-related issues, mainly focusing on tonight’s 315 fermentation event

If both Central South and Huadian break their limits tomorrow, stocks with more than two limits won’t be considered for continuation. Personally, I will focus on stocks with 1-2 limits for continuation, with second limit being a key focus, as well as newly issued first limits… Prioritize stocks with orders and performance support…