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Oil Price Experiences "24 Hours of Terror": Strait of Hormuz Crisis Dominates Market

Summary: Recently, due to the sharp escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the international crude oil market has experienced a rare and dramatic shock. Oil prices have seen a rollercoaster of "sharp rise and fall" within just 24 hours, with the shipping crisis in the Strait of Hormuz becoming the core of market volatility.

Recently, the global energy market has fallen into unprecedented turmoil. A geopolitical crisis surrounding the key oil transportation route—the Strait of Hormuz—has pushed international oil prices to the forefront, creating a "rollercoaster" type of market.

One Day Change: From a 30% Surge to an Instant Crash

On March 9, international oil prices experienced a "24 hours of terror." Driven by the immediate escalation of tensions in the Middle East, benchmark global oil prices soared over 30% during the trading day, setting a nearly 40-year record for the largest single-day increase. WTI crude futures briefly broke the $120 per barrel mark, and market panic quickly spread.

However, a dramatic reversal followed. As the U.S. signaled that "the conflict is basically over," and the G7 countries urgently coordinated, considering joint releases of strategic petroleum reserves to stabilize the market, international oil prices rapidly plummeted from their highs, not only giving back all gains in a very short time but also plunging by as much as 11%, with such intense volatility astonishing global investors.

Root Cause: The "Artery" Blockage in the Strait of Hormuz

The root of this intense market shock lies in the near-total disruption of the world's energy lifeline—the transportation through the Strait of Hormuz. This strait is the only passage for Persian Gulf crude oil exports, with about one-third of global seaborne crude oil trade relying on it. According to the latest shipping data, the number of ships passing through the strait has dropped sharply to about 6% of the historical average, effectively entering a "blockade" state.

The shipping disruption has triggered a disastrous chain reaction. Major Middle Eastern oil-producing countries, such as Kuwait, Iraq, and the UAE, have had to announce production cuts as their onshore storage facilities quickly reached full capacity. This has led to a sharp daily reduction of 7 to 11 million barrels in global crude oil supply, causing a severe short-term supply shock.

Global Impact: Chain Reaction in Oil Prices

The intense volatility in international oil prices has rapidly transmitted to the global markets. First, influenced by the surge in overseas oil prices, China’s domestic refined oil prices were adjusted upward at 24:00 on March 9, marking the largest increase of the year. Second, panic over high oil prices and energy crises swept through global stock markets. Major Asia-Pacific markets plummeted after opening on March 9, with Japan, South Korea, and others triggering circuit breakers, and global financial markets' risk aversion soared.

Future Outlook: Uncertainty Clouds the Market

Looking ahead, the trend of the crude oil market is highly tied to the future development of Middle East geopolitical tensions. Market sentiment has become extremely sensitive and fragile. Analysts generally believe that if the shipping crisis in the Strait of Hormuz cannot be effectively resolved in the short term, the global crude oil supply gap will persist, and oil prices will face significant upward pressure. Conversely, if geopolitical conflicts cool down quickly, shipping resumes, and major consuming countries release strategic reserves, oil prices are expected to fall from current highs and re-establish supply-demand balance.

In summary, the current market clearly demonstrates that geopolitics is one of the most unstable and decisive factors affecting the global energy landscape. In the spring of the "Bing Wu Year," the global economy’s trajectory is closely linked to the situation in the Middle East, and any new developments could once again stir the waves in the crude oil market.