International oil prices surge then plummet, with daily fluctuations exceeding 40%. Trump hints that the US-Iran conflict will end soon.

March 9, 2026, is destined to be recorded in the history of the oil market, as international oil prices experienced a dramatic swing from a surge of 31% to an 11% plunge, with intraday volatility exceeding 40%.

During the Asian trading session that day, U.S. WTI crude futures contracts soared by as much as 31%, approaching a four-year high of nearly $120 per barrel. Subsequently, influenced by news that the G7 countries were considering jointly releasing oil reserves, the price gains narrowed. The most dramatic moment occurred in after-hours trading when U.S. President Trump hinted that the Iran conflict was essentially over, causing oil prices to plummet. WTI crude fell by 11%, touching a low of $81.19 per barrel. The global benchmark Brent crude futures also experienced wide fluctuations, reaching a high of $119.50 per barrel and a low below $89.00. As oil prices declined, the U.S. stock market, which had opened with a sharp drop on Monday, recovered some losses and began to rise steadily.

After the Asian market opened on March 10, WTI crude initially opened higher but then declined. As of the time of writing, WTI and Brent are trading at $87.49 and $98.96 per barrel, respectively.

Volatility in WTI over Five Trading Days

According to Xinhua News Agency, on the afternoon of the 9th, U.S. President Trump indicated in a phone interview with CBS that the conflict with Iran might end soon. Trump said he believed the military operations against Iran had been “very thorough” and claimed Iran now “has no navy, no communication facilities, no air force, and their missiles are almost gone, drones have been destroyed including their drone manufacturing plants.” “From a military perspective, they have nothing left.”

Following Trump’s remarks, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose in response. Trump also mentioned that ships are currently passing through the Strait of Hormuz but he is still considering “controlling” this vital waterway.

Pengpai News estimates that last week, WTI crude oil prices increased by over 35%, and Brent rose nearly 28%. WTI recorded the largest weekly gain since crude futures trading began in 1983, and Brent saw its biggest weekly increase since 1990. The impact of Middle East tensions has gone far beyond energy markets, with ongoing U.S.-Iran conflicts fueling concerns over global inflation, trade stagnation, and slowing economic growth.

The surge in oil prices has put significant pressure on the Trump administration. As of March 8, the average retail gasoline price in the U.S. had increased by nearly 50 cents per gallon over the past week. Analysts say that if retail gasoline prices reach $4 per gallon, the overall U.S. CPI could rise by about 0.3-0.5 percentage points year-over-year. Including diesel, airline tickets, food prices, petrochemical and plastic products, and utility costs, the Federal Reserve and other global central banks will face serious challenges.

“Historical patterns show that major and sustained oil shocks inevitably lead to a global recession. $200 oil would cause devastating damage,” said Yan Jiantao, chief researcher at Jiechao Energy Consulting, to Pengpai News. “If there is no clear ceasefire this week, the market will accept the idea of a prolonged conflict, and prices will continue to rise.” Due to the stronger financial attributes of U.S. crude futures, risks in physical delivery, and rising U.S. gasoline and diesel prices driving crude prices higher, U.S. oil exhibits more intense volatility than Brent, with stronger upward momentum during bullish phases.

“War can end easily, depending on Trump,” Yan Jiantao believes. Although the approaching $3.50 per gallon for U.S. gasoline is not the only trigger for ending the war, it is an important psychological threshold and a key catalyst for Trump’s decision-making. While current prices are still far below the near $6 record high set in June 2022, $3.50 is viewed as a critical psychological barrier for American consumers.

U.S. Crude Oil and Gasoline Retail Price Trends Over 20 Years (Jiechao Energy Chart)

Market reports suggest that Trump is considering measures such as restricting exports and tax cuts to curb oil prices. However, Yan Jiantao analyzed to Pengpai News that “apart from a ceasefire, no other practical actions will have significant effects, because the affected output in the Middle East is 20 million barrels plus 4 million barrels of excess capacity.”

According to Xinhua News Agency, on the 9th, G7 finance ministers held a video conference with the International Energy Agency to discuss the possibility of jointly releasing strategic petroleum reserves if necessary to ease the surge in crude prices caused by Middle East conflicts. French Economy and Finance Minister Roland Lescure stated that the participants believe there is currently no supply shortage and that it is “not yet time to take action.”

(Source: Pengpai News)