March 10 Member Morning Report: Trump suppresses oil prices with TACO Claude creator sues the U.S. Department of Defense

1. 【Trump Uses TACO to Suppress Oil Prices】Crude oil prices fell below $90 per barrel after Trump hinted that the Iran war could end soon. In an interview with CBS News, he said, “I think this war is basically over, pretty much.” On Monday, before this statement, oil prices approached nearly $120 per barrel.

Comment: After extreme panic, the market seized any possible positive signals to correct itself. Before the war, Brent crude was only $67 per barrel, and EIA’s forecast for 2026 was just $58—meaning current oil prices include a significant “war premium.” The core assumption behind TACO trading is less reliable in a hot war that has already caused actual military casualties and infrastructure damage—too many variables are beyond anyone’s control.

2. 【Claude Creator Sues U.S. Department of Defense】Anthropic, the creator of Claude, is suing the U.S. Department of Defense because the Pentagon labeled it as a “supply chain risk.” This designation would prevent the AI company from undertaking defense-related work, and it has never before been used to label any U.S. company. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin added Anthropic to the blacklist last Thursday because the company refused to agree to restrictions on its technology being used for autonomous weapons or domestic surveillance.

3. 【NATO Under Continuous “Testing”】According to Turkish officials, NATO’s air defense system intercepted a ballistic missile launched from Iran toward Turkey. Meanwhile, due to concerns that Iran might attack a NATO base near Adana in southern Turkey, the U.S. has evacuated some non-essential staff from a nearby consulate and urged its citizens to leave the area. This is the second such so-called attack; last week, Turkey accused Iran of firing missiles at it.

4. 【Market Starts Betting on UK Rate Hike】UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak warned that a prolonged Middle East conflict could pressure the UK economy. Traders have increased bets, expecting the Bank of England to raise interest rates this year due to soaring energy prices.

5. 【G7 Holds Emergency Meeting to Discuss Oil Reserve Release】On Monday, March 9, the G7 finance ministers held an emergency video conference and issued a joint statement, saying they will closely monitor energy market developments and are prepared to take necessary measures to support global energy supply, including releasing strategic petroleum reserves, but no immediate action was announced. It is believed that the final decision on releasing oil reserves will more likely be made by G7 leaders.

Comment: The G7 faces a painful arithmetic problem: even releasing 400 million barrels, at a daily deficit of 20 million barrels, would only last 20 days. The maximum daily draw from the U.S. SPR is 4.4 million barrels, but it takes 13 days from presidential order to crude entering the market. More critically, the oil grades don’t match: SPR mainly stores light, low-sulfur crude, while the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz mainly affects medium, sulfur-containing crude. Therefore, the true value of releasing reserves isn’t in physically filling the supply gap—since that’s nearly impossible at this scale—but in the “announcement effect,” where market expectations of coordinated releases can itself suppress speculative premiums.