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JPM downgrades Novo on disappointing CagriSema obesity trial results, shares dip
JPM downgrades Novo on disappointing CagriSema obesity trial results, shares dip
Vahid Karaahmetovic
Tue, February 24, 2026 at 7:19 PM GMT+9 2 min read
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Investing.com – JPMorgan downgraded Novo Nordisk (CSE:NOVOb) (NYSE:NVO) to Neutral from Overweight after disappointing late-stage REDEFINE-4 results for its obesity drug CagriSema showed weaker-than-expected competitiveness versus Eli Lilly’s (NYSE:LLY) Zepbound.
The Wall Street firm also lowered its price target on the stock to 250 Danish crowns from 350.
Shares in Novo fell around 2.6% in Copenhagen trading.
JPMorgan analyst Richard Vosser said the latest data showed an inferior weight-loss profile versus Lilly’s Zepbound in obesity and a more limited glucose effect in Type 2 diabetes, prompting a reassessment of forecasts.
Vosser noted he had already assumed a limited share for CagriSema following earlier trials, but now expects “a more challenging uptake for the product given inferiority to Zepbound.”
As a result, JPM cut its CagriSema forecasts by 40%–63% for 2027-2030 and trimmed amycretin projections by 1%–23% to reflect lower expected pricing. The changes drove reductions of 2%–16% in group sales forecasts for 2026-2030 and 2%–17% cuts to adjusted EPS.
The analysts now see Novo’s 2026-2030 estimates sitting 5% to 21% below Bloomberg consensus, with expected EPS growth broadly in line with large-cap European pharma peers.
Vosser said the CagriSema profile “seems hard to recover from inferiority result in REDEFINE 4,” even though weight loss of about 20% remains ahead of Wegovy but below Zepbound’s 23%.
The analyst still sees promise in amycretin, particularly as an oral therapy, but cautioned that investor confidence will likely depend on Phase III data expected in 2028–2029.
In a separate note, Barclays struck a more constructive near-term tone on Novo’s Oral Wegovy uptake. The bank said early prescription trends are “encouraging,” with Week 7 scripts reaching about 48,000, up 12% week over week, and daily TRx showing “a strong ramp continues.”
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