Global News | The three major U.S. stock indices all closed lower, with a 97.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged

【U.S. Stock Indices】

On Tuesday, March 3rd, Eastern Time, the three major U.S. stock indices all closed lower, with the S&P 500 down 0.94% at 6,816.63; the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.83% at 48,501.27; and the Nasdaq down 1.02% at 22,516.69.

【U.S. Bonds】

On March 3rd, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.06%, and the yield on the 2-year Treasury, most sensitive to Federal Reserve policy rates, was 3.51%.

【Popular U.S. Stocks】

Among popular stocks, Nvidia fell 1.33%, Apple declined 0.37%, Google A dropped 0.96%, Google C decreased 0.91%, Microsoft rose 1.35%, Amazon increased 0.16%, TSMC fell 4.28%, Meta gained 0.23%, Tesla dropped 2.70%, Super Micro Semiconductor declined 3.86%, and Intel fell 5.28%.

【Global Indices】

【Chinese Indices】

On March 3rd, overnight Hang Seng Tech Index futures fell 2.16%, Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index declined 3.34%, and FTSE China A50 Index dropped 0.14%.

【Chinese Concept Stocks】

In popular Chinese concept stocks, Tencent Holdings (HK) fell 0.68%, Alibaba dropped 4.87%, Pinduoduo declined 2.05%, NetEase rose 0.32%, Baidu fell 3.93%, Ctrip gained 0.43%, Li Auto dropped 2.90%, Xpeng Motors declined 6.62%, and NIO fell 2.75%.

【Forex and Commodities】

【Global News】

Federal Reserve Probability of Holding Rates Steady in March is 97.4%

According to CME “FedWatch”: The probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in March is 2.6%, with a 97.4% chance of holding rates steady. The chance of a cumulative 25 basis point cut by April is 14.4%, with an 85.3% probability of no change, and a 0.3% chance of a 50 basis point cut. By June, the probability of a total 25 basis point cut is 37.1%.

News Corp and Meta Platforms Reach Multi-Year AI Licensing Agreement, at Least Three Years Long, with Meta Paying Up to $50 Million Annually for Content Licensing for Training and Output

News Corp and Meta Platforms have reached a multi-year AI licensing agreement, lasting at least three years, with Meta paying up to $50 million per year to license content for training and output.

Fed’s Kashkari: Cooling Inflation Might Make One or Two Rate Cuts Later This Year Appropriate

Federal Reserve’s Kashkari stated that the U.S. economy does not need restrictive policies and he wants to avoid repeating the “temporary” misjudgment; before the Iran conflict, inflation was trending positively, but now the conflict clouds the outlook for monetary policy; with the war looming, the Fed can wait and see. He also mentioned that if inflation cools, one or two rate cuts later this year might be appropriate.

OpenAI Launches GPT 5.3 Instant Website

OpenAI has launched GPT 5.3 Instant, now available to all ChatGPT users. GPT 5.2 Instant will be available to paid users in the old model section for three months and will be discontinued on June 3rd.

OpenAI Releases GPT 5.3 Instant

OpenAI: GPT 5.2 Instant will be available to paid users for three months, accessible under the old model category in the model selector, and will cease service on June 3rd.

Google Launches GEMINI 3.1 FLASH-LITE Model

Google announced that the 3.1 Flash Lite model costs $0.25 per 1 million input tokens and $1.50 per 1 million output tokens. Starting today, the 3.1 Flash-Lite will be available in preview via the Gemini API in Google AI Studio for developers, and through Vertex AI for enterprise customers.

Fed’s Williams: It’s Too Early to Assess How Iran Conflict Will Impact the Global Economy

Fed’s Williams said it’s too early to compare the Iran conflict to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as the persistence of oil shocks remains uncertain. It’s premature to make a broad assessment of how the Iran conflict will affect the global economy.

Fed’s Schnabel: Large Fiscal Stimulus Measures Expected in 2026. We Will Watch Global Political Developments

Fed’s Schnabel stated that significant fiscal stimulus measures are expected in 2026 and that we will observe how global political events unfold.

OpenAI and Pentagon Agree to Strengthen Recently Signed Contract

OpenAI and the Pentagon have agreed to strengthen their recently signed contract.

South Korean AI Chip Startup Rebellions Challenges Nvidia’s Market Position with IPO Plans

AI chip startup Rebellions has hired JPMorgan as its global lead underwriter for its Seoul IPO, paving the way for Korea’s most anticipated tech stock debut. According to sources, the company plans to file for an IPO later this year, targeting a listing by late 2026 or early 2027. Rebellions focuses on AI accelerators optimized for data center inference workloads (running AI models). Emphasizing cost-effectiveness and energy efficiency, it aims to challenge Nvidia’s dominant market position. In September 2025, Rebellions raised $250 million in Series C funding, valuing the company at $1.4 billion. Hiring JPMorgan highlights its strategy to attract global institutional investors and domestic capital. A successful IPO will provide fresh capital to expand R&D, deepen manufacturing partnerships, and solidify its position in the rapidly evolving AI chip market.