1. Overall Market Pattern: Systematic Pullback and Structural Differentiation

The current crypto market is in a mid-term correction cycle. Mainstream coins (BTC, ETH) experienced rapid gains earlier, but macro expectations and profit-taking triggered a systemic pullback. BTC repeatedly tests support around $64,000, indicating intensified bullish and bearish battles; high-volatility assets (like SOL) lead the decline, while Meme coins (like DOGE) show characteristics of "resistance and诱多" control, with the market structure clearly diverging.

2. Core Driving Factors

1. Macro Pressure: Geopolitical risks (such as US-Iran confrontation) and uncertainty in tariff policies have led to a decline in global risk appetite, with funds shifting from high-risk assets (cryptocurrencies) to traditional safe-haven assets (USD, US Treasuries), suppressing overall market valuation.

2. Technical Breakdown: BTC broke below key moving average support (EMA99), forming a bearish alignment. The MACD indicator flattened below zero, confirming a mid-term downtrend. Mainstream coins generally broke short-term support levels, with selling pressure continuing to release.

3. Capital Game: Major funds create local hotspots by "counter-cyclical pumping of Meme coins," attracting retail investors to buy in, while accelerating distribution on mainstream coins, forming a typical "诱多出货" control rhythm.

3. Market Segment Characteristics

- Mainstream Coins: BTC, ETH lead the decline, with ample liquidity but lacking buy support, in a no-volume downward trend, with limited short-term rebound potential.

- High-Volatility Assets: SOL and other Layer 1 tokens have fallen far more than the market, due to prior large gains, with strong withdrawal intentions, in a correction channel.

- Meme Coins: DOGE and others surge counter to the market decline, representing control and诱多. Essentially, manipulators exploit retail investors' "抗跌=强势" illusion to gather chips for subsequent dumps.

4. Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendations

- Short-term (1-3 days): The market will likely continue oscillating downward. If BTC effectively breaks below $64,000, it will trigger a new round of stop-loss orders, accelerating the decline of mainstream coins.

- Mid-term (1-2 weeks): Pay attention to macro signals and major fund movements. If geopolitical conflicts escalate or tariff policies are implemented, market sentiment could reverse; otherwise, the correction trend will persist.

- Trading Strategy: Recommend defensive positions, avoid bottom-fishing Meme coins and other control tokens; focus on high-volatility assets for short positions, set strict stop-losses, and control drawdown risks.