$BTC $BTC 2.9 Bitcoin Market Analysis: Based on wave structure analysis, Bitcoin is currently still in a downward cycle since $126,200, which is part of the fourth wave correction in the five-wave structure. Historical data shows that such corrections tend to last longer, with the current decline expected to continue for approximately 256 to 360 days, indicating that the true trend bottom may not have appeared yet. Macro liquidity is a key factor in determining major bottoms. Looking back at history, each bull market launch has been accompanied by clear liquidity policy turning points. The current environment remains in a phase of liquidity contraction, with ETF funds continuously flowing out, risk assets de-leveraging simultaneously, and no policy signals indicating stop or substantial expansion of balance sheets. Based on cycle projections, the 2026 market may unfold in three phases: March to May with macro tightening and significant market volatility; June to July with policy expectations materializing and a potential mid-term bottom; and after August, as liquidity returns, the main upward wave may truly begin. Therefore, a trend-based rally is more likely to start in the second half of the year. Currently, the market is in a volatile phase of sharp rises and falls, not the beginning of a trend. Contract traders should be cautious of the risk of further market lows and avoid excessive optimism before liquidity turning points are confirmed. The market carries risks; please trade cautiously and strictly control positions and leverage.