Bitcoin in the Delta Wave Cycle: Volatility, Customs Risks, and Recovery Opportunities

The Bitcoin markets are currently experiencing a critical wave of volatility driven by geopolitical trade tensions and macroeconomic uncertainties. While the price is currently at $84.26K after a challenging start to the week, typical patterns of a delta wave phase are emerging, where price boundaries are tested and liquidity is examined before new momentum develops.

The Current Delta Wave: Massive Volatility Between Tariff Fears and Liquidity Tests

The week began with significant selling pressure on risk assets. Futures markets responded immediately to new tariff threats looming between the US and Europe. Bitcoin already experienced a sharp decline and is moving within a range that traders are watching closely. The order book shows substantial liquidity below the current price level, indicating that further testing of support zones between $80,000 and $87,000 remains possible.

Several market analysts warn of a “liquidity grab” — a scenario where sellers push prices down to trigger stops before a rebound follows. The critical zone lies between $93,000 and $94,000. If Bitcoin fails to reclaim and hold this zone, the previous rally could be interpreted as a temporary recovery within a larger downtrend.

Trade Conflicts Fuel the Next Wave of Volatility

The return of tariffs as a dominant market risk is not surprising, but their intensity significantly amplifies volatility dynamics. Reports indicate possible tariffs of up to 25% on several European countries starting February 1 — an announcement that creates immediate market uncertainty.

Historically, Bitcoin and stocks have shown high sensitivity to tariff news. In April 2025, similar trade disputes led to a drastic drop in BTC below $75,000. Such scenarios could repeat today before clarity in trade policy emerges. Analysts expect multiple delta wave-like price movements in the coming days until uncertainty subsides.

Safe Havens Flourish as Bitcoin Reconsiders

A notable contrast is seen in the performance of traditional safe assets. Gold approaches $7,000 per ounce, while silver reached a record high of nearly $94. Since August 2025, gold has nearly doubled in value — a clear sign of capital rotation into “hard” assets.

This flight to safety could temporarily pressure Bitcoin, but some network experts like Timothy Peterson argue that Bitcoin and gold remain structurally aligned in the long term. The divergence in short-term performance is likely to close once macroeconomic fears ease.

US Macro Data Complicates the Monetary Outlook

This week brings critical economic indicators: PCE inflation, unemployment rates, and revised GDP figures. Markets are not pricing in a Federal Reserve rate cut for January, which removes an immediate liquidity advantage for risk assets.

Despite high inflation indicators, cracks are appearing in commodity development — a scenario that could complicate Fed policy. This uncertainty reinforces volatile delta wave patterns in the market and leads to greater price nervousness in Bitcoin and other risk assets.

The Rescue Comes from the Blockchain: What On-Chain Data Shows

Despite short-term weakness, on-chain data points to a healthier market structure than superficial price movements suggest. Data from CryptoQuant reveals a surprisingly positive picture:

Spot market purchases have picked up again. The cumulative volume delta of spot markets has shifted toward a buy-oriented position. Futures activity follows spot demand rather than leverage speculation.

This indicates that the rally toward $98,000 was driven by genuine, non-speculative buyers. Open interest in derivatives has fallen by nearly 18% from the October record high of $126,000, significantly reducing liquidation risk and deleveraging the system.

CryptoQuant specialists characterize the current environment as early recovery phase of demand, not the end phase of a bull market. The market structure is currently laying the groundwork for stronger upward movements.

After the Volatility Wave: When the Rally Returns

The coming days will be marked by considerable volatility — this is undisputed among analysts. The delta wave phase is likely to bring several corrections.

The key scenario is this: if Bitcoin manages to reclaim and defend the $93,500 zone, confidence in a renewed push toward $100,000 would be significantly strengthened. If macroeconomic uncertainty diminishes and clarity on trade policies emerges, the short-term winners of yesterday (Gold, Silver) could re-rotate back into risk-on assets.

The current delta wave phase is challenging but not the end of the development. The combination of improved on-chain conditions and real spot market demand suggests that Bitcoin is currently well-positioned for the next upward wave — once external uncertainties subside.

Until then: sharp movements in both directions are the new normal.