Telegram's TON Dilemma: Revenue Hits Record High but Faces Losses, IPO Prospects Uncertain

Telegram’s latest financial report reveals a contradictory phenomenon: revenue has surged significantly, yet profits are shrinking. Behind this financial puzzle is not user growth slowdown, but the deep entanglement with the TON blockchain evolving into a double-edged sword. After the messaging giant announced the sale of over $450 million worth of TON tokens, the market has begun to reassess the boundaries of Telegram’s interests within the crypto ecosystem.

Financial Paradox: 65% Revenue Growth, Why Are Profits Shrinking?

According to the Financial Times, Telegram’s financial performance in the first half of 2025 appears impressive. Unaudited financials show the company achieved $870 million in revenue, a 65% increase year-over-year, far surpassing the $525 million in the first half of 2024. Operating profit approached $400 million.

But behind this impressive scorecard lies a hidden risk: Telegram’s net profit for the first half of the year turned into a loss of $222 million.

What caused the divergence between revenue growth and profit decline? The answer points to the devaluation of TON token assets. As the overall crypto market remained subdued in 2025, TON token prices continued to decline, dropping over 73% at their lowest point. This meant Telegram had to write down the value of its large holdings of TON assets, and this loss directly impacted its bottom-line net profit.

Looking at the revenue structure, Telegram’s growth momentum is shifting. Advertising revenue increased by 5% to $125 million, while premium subscription income soared 88% to $223 million. But the real driver of growth is the exclusive agreement with the TON blockchain—TON has become the sole blockchain infrastructure for Telegram’s mini-game ecosystem, generating nearly $300 million in related revenue.

This dependency was already evident in 2024. That year, Telegram achieved its first annual profit of $540 million, with total revenue reaching $1.4 billion, nearly quadrupling from $343 million in 2023. About 50% of this income came from collaborations within the crypto ecosystem, and this explosive growth in that segment propelled Telegram’s rapid expansion.

The $4.35 Billion Shipment Controversy: Cash-Out or Strategic Adjustment?

News of Telegram’s losses due to TON asset devaluation did not attract much attention, but another piece of information stirred the community— the company sold over $450 million worth of TON tokens. This figure exceeds 10% of the token’s circulating market cap.

Public opinion questioned: Is Telegram cashing out during the crypto market downturn to escape, or is it stabbing its early investors in the back?

Manuel Stotz, Chairman of TONX, the TON treasury company, responded publicly. According to him, all TON tokens sold by Telegram were subject to a four-year phased unlock schedule. In other words, these tokens could not be traded on secondary markets during the vesting period, so there would be no short-term selling pressure.

More importantly, Stotz revealed that the main buyers of this transaction were long-term investment entities like TONX. Their purpose in purchasing these tokens is to hold and stake them long-term, not for speculative quick flips. As a U.S.-listed investment firm within the TON ecosystem, TONX’s buying activity essentially acts as ecosystem support.

Stotz also emphasized that Telegram’s net holdings of TON tokens after this sale did not decrease significantly; in fact, they might have increased. The reason is that Telegram continues to earn new TON income from advertising revenue and other business activities, so their overall holdings remain high.

Telegram founder Pavel Durov has long had a forward-looking plan. As early as 2024, he stated that the team would keep Telegram’s TON holdings below 10%. Any amount exceeding this threshold would be sold to long-term investors, both to promote wider token distribution for decentralization and to raise funds for development. Durov stressed that these sales would be conducted at a slight discount to market price and with lock-up and vesting periods to prevent short-term dumping.

In other words, Telegram’s sales are more like carefully planned asset restructuring rather than simple high-price dumping. The goal is to prevent excessive concentration of TON in Telegram’s hands, which could lead to price manipulation, while maintaining the project’s decentralization principles.

The Double-Edged Sword of Mutual Prosperity and Loss

Data shows that the current price of TON is $1.57, with a circulating market cap of approximately $3.81 billion. Compared to the lows mentioned earlier, the price has rebounded but remains far below market expectations.

Telegram’s high degree of binding with TON has created a mutually beneficial yet risky situation. On one hand, Telegram benefits from deep involvement in the TON ecosystem, gaining new revenue streams and product highlights, making the mini-game ecosystem a new growth engine. On the other hand, the company must also bear the financial impact of crypto market volatility—evidenced by the losses in the first half of 2025.

This double-edged effect becomes especially significant as Telegram considers an IPO. Investors evaluating its value need to consider not only revenue growth but also its exposure to crypto ecosystem risks.

Convertible Bonds, Debt Repayments, and How Far Is the IPO?

Telegram’s preparations for going public are quite evident. Since 2021, the company has raised over $1 billion through multiple rounds of bond financing. In 2025, it issued another $1.7 billion in convertible bonds, attracting participation from international institutions like BlackRock and Mubadala of Abu Dhabi.

These financings are ongoing, and Telegram has already repaid most of its maturing debt from 2026 through debt swaps. Specifically, the company had two main bonds: one with a 7% coupon maturing in March 2026, and another with a 9% coupon maturing in 2030, both convertible bonds. Of the latest $1.7 billion issuance, about $955 million was used to refinance old bonds, with $745 million as new capital.

The convertible bonds feature an IPO conversion clause. If Telegram goes public before 2030, investors can redeem or convert at approximately 80% of the IPO price, effectively enjoying a 20% discount. This reflects strong investor confidence in Telegram’s successful listing.

Durov publicly stated that the old debt from 2021 has been largely repaid and does not pose current risks. Regarding the $500 million Russian bonds frozen by authorities, he emphasized that Telegram does not rely on Russian capital, and the recently issued $1.7 billion bonds did not involve Russian investors. Therefore, the company’s main remaining debt is the 2030 convertible bonds, leaving a relatively ample window for an IPO.

Pavel Durov’s Long-Term Bet

Many investors expect Telegram to initiate an IPO around 2026-2027, converting debt to equity and opening new financing channels. Missing this window could mean long-term interest payments pressure and losing the opportunity to transition to equity financing.

Investors also focus on Telegram’s commercial potential. With about 1 billion monthly active users and 450 million daily active users, its scale offers enormous business prospects. Although the business has grown rapidly in recent years, Telegram still needs to prove its monetization model can sustain profitability.

A positive sign is Telegram’s absolute control over its ecosystem. Durov recently emphasized that the company’s sole shareholder remains himself, and creditors do not influence governance. This means Telegram can afford to sacrifice some short-term profits to foster long-term user stickiness and ecosystem prosperity. This “delayed gratification” strategy aligns with Durov’s consistent product philosophy and will be central to telling its growth story during the IPO.

However, the path to listing is not smooth. According to the Financial Times, Telegram’s potential IPO plans are still affected by ongoing legal proceedings against Durov in France. The uncertainty surrounding this investigation complicates the timing and could pose obstacles before the IPO.

The story of Telegram and TON continues to unfold. Against the backdrop of crypto market volatility, this messaging platform is trying to balance embracing new ecosystems with risk mitigation. Whether its IPO prospects are a beautiful dream or a feasible reality may be revealed in the next 12-24 months.