What are NFT investors looking at in 2026? From market signals to value redefinition

This beginning of the year, in the NFT market which many have already considered “settled and concluded,” suddenly has started to show some unusual signs. Prices are rising, trading volume is rebounding, and those who were previously stuck in difficulties are beginning to discuss actively. But if you only look at these surface data, thinking that NFTs have truly “come back to life,” that would be too naive. The real market logic is actually much more complex.

Market Bottoming Out? Why the Rise in NFT Trading Volume Still Fails to Change the Dilemma

After entering 2026, some changes are indeed happening. According to CoinGecko data, in the past week, the overall market cap of NFTs increased by over $220 million, with a noticeable weekly growth. NFT Price Floor monitoring even shows that hundreds of projects have experienced price rebounds, some with triple- or quadruple-digit increases.

For those who have held on through long-term lows, this may seem like a dream come true. But peeling back this “good news,” the real problems begin to surface.

First, look at the trading data. Among more than 1,700 NFT projects, only 6 have weekly trading volumes exceeding $1 million. Only 14 are in the range of tens of thousands to $1 million. Even among these relatively active top projects, the proportion of NFTs actually involved in trading compared to total supply is only single digits, with a large number of collections having zero trading volume. What does this indicate? Liquidity has already dried up to a dangerously extreme level.

The Block’s annual report in 2025 pointed out that throughout 2025, the entire NFT market did not see genuine new capital entering. Speculative enthusiasm plummeted, and the competition across multiple chains reverted to Ethereum’s dominance. The total transaction volume for the year fell to $5.5 billion, down 37% from 2024. Market cap shrank from $9 billion to $2.4 billion.

The implication behind these numbers is: current NFTs have already become “old assets.” Those still actively trading are mostly trapped old players. New capital has long since turned away. This recent price rebound is better described as a last wave of position trading by a tiny amount of remaining capital, rather than a market recovery.

Projects Seeking Change, Capital Shifting — Adaptive Evolution of the NFT Ecosystem

But this does not mean NFTs are completely dead. On the contrary, the entire ecosystem is undergoing a painful self-evolution.

OpenSea no longer stubbornly sticks to JPEG images but has launched a token incentive mechanism, shifting towards becoming a multi-asset trading platform. Flow has transitioned from a mainstream NFT public chain to exploring DeFi opportunities. Zora has completely abandoned traditional NFT models, moving towards a “content as token” new direction. Behind these moves is a rational recognition of market realities.

Even the once top-tier projects are struggling. Pudgy Penguins, although successful in gaining popularity, with physical toys selling well in mainstream markets and establishing IP recognition, still see their on-chain floor prices continuously decline. A strange disconnect has appeared between fame and price support.

Moreover, the decisive withdrawal of Web2 giants has added the final straw. Reddit has ceased NFT services, Nike sold RTFKT. These are not just isolated decisions by two companies but a collective collapse of the mainstream’s last illusions about NFTs.

Interestingly, the demand for collecting and speculation has not disappeared; instead, capital has found new outlets. Pokémon TCG cards are still actively traded, with annual trading volume exceeding $1 billion. The physical collectibles market remains lucrative, even attracting top participants from the crypto space. Crypto artist Beeple has turned his attention to physical robot creations. Wintermute’s co-founder invested $5 million in buying dinosaur fossils. Animoca Brands’ founder spent $9 million to buy a rare violin.

The underlying logic is clear: after virtual assets on-chain lose their appeal, high-net-worth individuals begin seeking more certain and secure asset forms. Physical assets and top collectibles have become new safe havens.

Where Are the Truly Worthy NFT Investment Opportunities?

Since general collectible NFTs are waning, what should investors be looking at now? After repeated market testing, some new investment logic is emerging.

Short-term swing trading. Some players believe the market has bottomed out, and they aim to capture price mismatches for short-term trades. This approach carries high risks and high rewards, suitable only for investors with risk tolerance and trading experience.

“Golden Shovel” NFTs. Currently, these are the NFT categories with the best liquidity and highest participation. Essentially, these NFTs are no longer collectibles but financial certificates—proof of future airdrops or whitelist access. But caution is needed: once the airdrop is completed and the snapshot ends, if the project does not assign new functional value to the NFT, the floor price can plummet rapidly or even drop to zero. So, these NFTs are only suitable for short-term participation, not long-term holding.

NFTs endorsed by celebrities or top projects. When well-known figures or top-tier projects participate in NFTs, they can directly boost attention and liquidity, creating short-term premiums. For example, Hypurr NFTs airdropped to early HyperLiquid users have risen steadily. After Ethereum founder Vitalik changed his avatar to Milady NFT, the floor price of that series increased significantly.

Head IP NFTs. Projects like CryptoPunks, which have been incorporated into the permanent collection of the Museum of Modern Art in New York, have long surpassed mere hype. They represent cultural identity and collectible value, with relatively anti-dip prices and long-term preservation attributes.

Acquisition-driven NFTs. When a project is acquired by a stronger investor, the market re-evaluates its monetization potential and brand value, often leading to price surges. The prices of Pudgy Penguins and Moonbirds rebounded significantly after acquisition.

NFTs linked to physical assets. Tokenizing real-world assets on-chain can anchor real value and reduce investment risks. Platforms like Collector Crypt and Courtyard allow users to trade ownership of physical cards and collectibles on-chain, with the physical items securely stored by the platform. This model is connecting traditional collectibles with the blockchain world.

NFTs with practical functions. NFTs are gradually shifting from purely investment assets to tools. This includes NFT ticketing systems, DAO governance voting rights, AI on-chain identities based on NFTs, and more. Only NFTs with real utility can attract sustained attention.

From these directions, it’s clear that meaningless small images have completely lost their appeal. Investors are now focusing on projects with clear value support, practical application scenarios, or confirmed upward momentum. The market is voting with its feet, and this voting is actually a deep redefinition of the essence of NFTs.

In 2026, looking at NFTs is less about signs of market recovery and more about observing how an industry seeks genuine value and redefines itself amid difficulties. Those projects and participants who can adapt to this transformation are the ones most likely to succeed in the end.