Production coupon OAS has climbed back to the levels we saw when the Fed was actively purchasing MBS. Sure, you can argue the technical mechanics differ between traditional QE and GSE buying programs—but from a market perspective? The effects are virtually identical.

Whether it's the Fed's balance sheet or GSE support, when there's systemic buying pressure at these scales, the market doesn't split hairs over semantics. OAS compression tells the story: conditions feel like QE all over again, regardless of what the official playbook calls it.