JPMorgan's latest blockbuster report shatters market illusions. Chief Economist Michael Feroli straightforwardly states: there will be no rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, and even in the third quarter of 2027, there are plans to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. This forecast completely overturns investors' optimistic expectations of two rate cuts this year.

Why so pessimistic? JPMorgan's reasoning is very firm—U.S. employment and GDP growth continue to strengthen, core CPI remains high, consistently staying above 3%. In this environment, the Federal Reserve has no room to cut rates and must instead prepare for rate hikes.

What’s more upsetting is political interference. Trump has been pressuring the Fed to push interest rates down to 1%, and has already nominated a new chair who is set to take office in May. But Powell remains firm, explicitly stating during judicial investigations: no one is above the law. This confrontation has triggered a subpoena storm that directly impacts the market, with a comprehensive sell-off last Monday.

The current situation is indeed complex: independence is challenged, high inflation persists, and hawkish forecasts keep emerging. What will the Federal Reserve do? Is a rate cut truly impossible? Or are there bigger variables brewing? All these factors will determine the future direction of digital assets.