Recently, the United States announced measures to control Venezuela's oil revenue, which has sparked considerable discussion in the crypto community. On the surface, this appears to be a political move—freezing assets to exert pressure—but for traders, the real focus should be on the underlying fund flows.

Let's break down the actual impact of this operation. Venezuela's crude oil production accounts for less than 1% of the global supply, and much of it is heavy oil that is difficult to refine. The global oil market itself has ample supply, so the probability of significant short-term price fluctuations is low. This makes the entire event more of a political statement, with the core goal being geopolitical leverage.

The key point is that the reaction logic of the crypto market often lies not in the commodities themselves but in sentiment and capital flows. When geopolitical tensions escalate, on-chain funds tend to seek safe-haven exits. Stablecoins, as an "on-chain dollar liquidity pool," serve as an important indicator of market sentiment through their liquidity changes. When geopolitical risks increase, some funds may flow from high-risk assets into stablecoins, and this shift directly influences short-term market momentum.

From historical experience, every escalation of geopolitical conflict has led to volatility in the crypto market—not necessarily a one-way decline, but rapid oscillations driven by sentiment. Being able to read on-chain inflows and outflows of stablecoins can help anticipate the true intentions of capital flows.