#密码资产动态追踪 【Trader's Notes】BTC 1-Hour Chart Shows Divergence, What's Next?

After reviewing various chart data, let's get straight to the point: in the next 24-48 hours, $BTC is highly likely to push upward to challenge the key resistance at 92600-92800, but the process definitely won't be smooth, so be mentally prepared. The medium-term trend framework remains bullish.

**How is the technical outlook?**

Currently, the price (92146.9) is hugging the upper Bollinger Band (92230.2), appearing quite strong. However, the upper band isn't sharply ascending, indicating energy is building up and it hasn't reached the full sprint stage yet. The middle band (91344.5) is the first line of defense.

The short-term moving averages have already crossed above the long-term moving averages, forming a bullish arrangement. The price remains stable above the main moving averages, with short-term momentum in the hands of the bulls. Regarding MACD, DIF (157.3) and DEA (96.4) are both above zero, maintaining a golden cross. However, the histogram (121.8), while green, hasn't shown a significant increase in height, meaning stronger confirmation signals are needed for an upward breakout.

Looking downward, the 90400-91000 range (Bollinger lower band plus previous support) acts as a strong barrier. If an upward breakout occurs and the 92600-92800 level is surpassed, it could open up the imagination space toward 94000+.

**On-chain insights**

In the past 24 hours, exchange outflows have increased, especially large BTC transfers from exchanges to cold wallets, signaling absorption by institutions and long-term holders. Although the price is rising, selling pressure hasn't significantly increased. Long-term holders' positions remain relatively stable, with no signs of large-scale profit-taking on-chain. Supply-side remains tight.

**Market news support**

On the macro front, Federal Reserve policy expectations remain unchanged, and market liquidity continues to favor risk assets. The ongoing net inflow of spot ETF funds provides strong support. Positive news could easily trigger a breakout.

Overall, the outlook remains optimistic, but don't ignore potential retracements and fluctuations in the middle.