Christmas lows in the bear market: The Bitcoin pattern analyzed by Kong

Analysis by Jack Kong, founder of Nano Labs, sheds interesting light on recurring patterns in Bitcoin’s price movements during bear markets. A notable observation: corrections and lows systematically occur during the Christmas season – a phenomenon that has been observed across multiple market cycles.

Historical lows as a guide

The data tell a clear story. Bitcoin traded at only $319 in 2014, $3,815 in 2018, and $16,831 in 2022 – all lows during the December period. This pattern suggests institutional and private realization of losses at the end of the fiscal year, a well-known phenomenon in traditional markets that is reflected in cryptocurrencies.

Outlook for 2025 and current market dynamics

Kong’s forecast for Bitcoin in 2025 is $88,000 – a significant decline from the 2024 high of $98,200. Currently, BTC is trading at around $92,220, while the all-time high is $126,080. These data indicate that the market may still face further corrections, especially when the well-known seasonal volatility occurs.

Technical indicators reinforce the analysis

In addition to price movements, Kong’s observation regarding Bitcoin’s hash rate is noteworthy. Reports indicate that over 400,000 mining machines have been shut down – a technical signal pointing to market pressure and profitability issues among miners. This underscores that not only speculators but also network operators are evaluating and adjusting their positions.

What does this mean for investors?

This analysis illustrates the inherent volatility of digital assets and their cyclical behavioral patterns. While Bitcoin continues to develop as a store of value, seasonal and technical factors remain relevant indicators of market movements. Whether $88,000 is truly a realistic forecast or a pessimistic scenario will become clear in the coming weeks.