#策略性加码BTC Gold hits a new all-time high of 4627, driven by expectations of rate cuts and geopolitical tensions

Yesterday (January 12), spot gold reached a new high again. After breaking through 4550.15, it continued to surge, ultimately touching a record high of 4627.39 USD.

Why is it rising so sharply? Mainly due to two factors:

First is fundamental support — the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting rates and disturbances in Iran’s situation are traditional bullish factors for gold. But the real catalyst came when the Trump administration launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Powell. This directly triggered safe-haven buying, while the dollar was suppressed, posting its largest decline in nearly three weeks, which added pressure on gold.

Second is the divergence in the pace of rate cuts — major institutions currently hold differing opinions: the CME FedWatch tool shows traders believe there is a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in January. But there is debate over when subsequent rate cuts will occur. Goldman Sachs, Barclays, and Morgan Stanley have pushed back the timing of rate cuts; Wells Fargo and Bank of America Global Research maintain their original forecasts. The core point of contention is actually one: what will happen to the labor market. Goldman Sachs says rate cuts depend on a stable labor market, while Bank of America believes the labor market is declining faster than expected, which could support earlier and more frequent rate cuts.

From a technical perspective: spot gold broke through the previous high of 4550, completing a bottom reversal, and the New York session saw it rise above 4600, confirming a strong trend. The 4-hour chart shows it following the short-term moving averages upward with no signs of topping; the 1-hour chart shows a V-shaped reversal, with a single bearish candle retracement followed by another breakout, with lows continuously making higher highs. The critical level is at 4585; above this, the bulls are clearly in control.

The main trading strategy remains to buy on dips. Focus on resistance in the 4650-4690 range; support is at 4580-4590.

Asian session suggestion: go long in the 4590-4600 range, with a stop loss at 4572. If the target of 4650-4690 is reached, consider reducing positions or reversing. Partial profit-taking can be considered at the first target.

Disclaimer: Content for reference only, invest cautiously. $BTC $ETH