ETH plays the "Murder Mystery" game: Main players set traps at the 3300 key level, why are retail investors always being cut?

1. Market Sentiment Shift — Liquidity Expectations Changing

The internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve are widening, and the outlook for interest rate policies remains uncertain. The crypto market is highly sensitive to liquidity. Between strong and weak employment data, expectations for rate cuts fluctuate repeatedly, creating both short-term pressure and explosive potential for ETH. This uncertainty is essentially a double-edged sword: greater divergence makes market pricing more prone to extreme deviations, and short-term volatility can scare off retail investors while creating ambush opportunities for savvy players. A structural turning point is brewing, and the current market is in a “deep water flowing quietly” stage.

2. The Truth Revealed by the 4-Hour K-Line: A Typical “Meat Grinder” Operation

ETH is currently priced at $3.12K, with a 24-hour increase of +0.30%. Careful observation shows the price oscillating repeatedly within the 3250-3310 range, with 3310 acting as a solid resistance and 3180 as a repeated fortress. This is not a technical correction but a targeted “pressure testing” by the main force:

• Unusual volume at 3300-3350: Order book data shows accumulation of sell orders, indicating the main force is intentionally controlling the upward breakthrough pace.
• Repeated support at 3180: Last night, a spike touched this level and was immediately followed by a rally, representing the bulls’ psychological defense line. Breaking through could trigger a chain of stop-losses.
• Weakness in pushing higher: The second attempt to break 3310 failed, with momentum clearly waning, and MACD divergence signals beginning to appear.

3. Technical Warning: Divergence and Trap for the Bulls

The MACD white and yellow lines are running above the zero line, but the energy histogram is significantly shrinking, a typical “exhaustion signal.” The price hits new highs but volume cannot keep up, indicating bullish momentum is dissipating. Three possible developments:

Short-term downside probability: If the 3310 breakout fails, a retest of 3220→3180 is highly likely. If it breaks below 3180, bears could target the 3130-3100 zone.

Mid-term breakout requirement: Only with increased volume to stabilize above 3350 can there be room toward 3400-3450. Currently, the main force’s behavior of “pressing orders to support the market” above 3300 suggests more of an inducement to trap bulls.

Risk signals: The current shrinking volume combined with high price levels is a typical precursor to a bull trap.

4. Trading Recommendations: Three Key Disciplines

Short-term strategy: Lightly short near 3310 with a stop-loss at 3320. If the price stabilizes around 3220-3180, consider a quick rebound attempt, but always exit swiftly and avoid stubborn holding.

Mid-term positioning: Resist the impulse to chase high near 3300. If it breaks below 3130-3100, that zone could turn into a prime accumulation area, suitable for phased building of positions.

Risk management baseline: Regardless of strategy, keep positions strictly below 50%. The current point is not suitable for all-in. Closely monitor the break points at 3310 and 3180, and follow through any valid breakout in either direction.

5. Market Essence: Psychology Wins Over Technique

On the surface, the crypto market is a game of candlesticks and indicators, but fundamentally, it’s a clash of participant psychology. The main force choosing 3180 as the spike point is because it’s the area where retail stop-losses are most concentrated. After a rally that fails to break through, the goal is to create an expectation that “it will rise again,” encouraging market participants to buy at high levels. ETH’s current movement resembles a “cat-and-mouse game” — most think they are hunters, but in reality, they are the prey.

Understanding market laws and setting clear entry and stop-loss standards are key to surviving this “whodunit” scenario.