Is Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Still Alive? The ETF Wild Card and January 2026's Turning Point

2026-01-12 20:20:44

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The crypto community is split right down the middle on whether Bitcoin’s legendary four-year cycle still holds weight. One camp says the recent $57 billion ETF inflow is a game-changer that invalidates the traditional playbook, potentially accelerating the cycle timeline beyond 2026. The other side isn’t buying it—they point to an eerily precise historical mirror: Bitcoin bottomed on 21-Nov 2022 at $15,460, and then again on 21-Nov 2025 at $80,524. Same date, three years apart. If that’s not the market’s way of screaming “the cycle is real,” what is?

Currently trading around $91.92K, Bitcoin’s price action suggests the market is pricing in something bigger. All eyes are now locked on January 15, 2026, when the U.S. is scheduled to hold hearings on a crypto market structure bill. This regulatory moment could reshape the entire cycle narrative—it’s not just another policy discussion, it’s potentially a critical inflection point that could either accelerate bullish momentum or introduce new volatility.

What makes this debate so crucial isn’t just academic. If the cycle still works, traders who understand its patterns have an edge. If ETF flows have fundamentally altered the game, those betting on historical patterns might get caught flat-footed. One thing’s for sure: January 2026 is shaping up to be the proving ground for whether traditional crypto cycle theory can survive in an institutional era.

#BTC #ETF

BTC1,88%

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