#BTC价格波动 Seeing Hanmokunatsu's viewpoint, I'm reminded of several lessons from last year's BTC volatility. Back then, I was also a firm bull until a major crash taught me what "overconfidence" really means.

The current situation is actually quite similar — BTC is indeed oscillating, but the key is distinguishing whether this is base-building or a bull trap. Hanmokunatsu says there's no need to be overly bearish in the next 1-2 months, and I agree with that, but I need to add a precondition: the premise is that ETF funds don't experience significant outflows. If this low-probability event occurs, breaking below 80,500 or even dropping to 71,000 wouldn't be a dream.

I've seen too many people go all-in before the "trend becomes clear," only to be caught off guard. Bitcoin's oscillation amplitude has now compressed to the extreme, which basically means it's making a choice — but whether that choice is upward or downward depends on the face of institutions and capital.

The safest approach is: don't chase highs when the trend is unclear, and don't get FOMO'd by short-term gains. Set your stop loss, protect your principal, and wait for adjustment signals in 3-4 months before making decisions. Those promises of quick riches in the short term should go in one ear and out the other. Living longer is worth more than making money fast.