#BTC价格波动 Seeing the monthly RSI data, what flashes through my mind is that scene from 2018. Back then, it was also a similar situation, with analysts debating whether it was a rebound or a continued decline, and the market was filled with an eerie silence.

The current RSI of 56.5 is indeed a delicate dividing line. History tells us that the four-year average of 58.7 is not just a casual number; it is based on countless cycles and patterns accumulated over time. The key lies in the performance over the next 1-2 months—if we can hold the 55 to 58 range, then the seeds of a rebound are still there; but once it falls below 55, we should be prepared for a deeper correction.

Looking back over the past 20 years, I find that the market's biggest fear is not the decline itself, but the hesitation at critical levels. A 20% annual retracement is not extreme in historical cycles, but the rhythm and depth of this correction have shattered many people's early-year expectations. Those who entered at high levels are now somewhat anxious; those who are watching are torn about whether to buy the dip.

My feeling is that this upcoming window period is more worth paying attention to than any other. The RSI's performance will directly determine the market sentiment's direction, and sentiment often reinforces itself. Holding above is the start of a new story; breaking below is a new risk pricing. This is not a prediction, just a rational observation based on historical patterns.