2026-01-11 05:22:54

Many people ask me: "How can I follow trades and make a profit?" Honestly, there is no foolproof method to make guaranteed profits in the crypto market. Those who truly survive rely not on high win rates, but on a deep "probabilistic mindset."

The most perfect charts and the clearest logic at best only tell you "it's very likely to go up," but they do not guarantee profits. Market movements never follow anyone's ideas; fluctuations in price are the norm in this market.

The real difference between retail traders and experts is not in technical indicators but in their approach. The question is: do you want to pursue every trade being correct, or do you stick to making choices that are "long-term beneficial" to you? The former may panic after a single loss, while the latter neither celebrates a single profit nor gets discouraged by a single loss.

To simplify trading to its core, there are three hard rules:

**First, the method must have a positive edge.** It doesn't need to be complicated; as long as it can make money in the long run. Many people always want to find the perfect system, but end up confusing themselves.

**Second, execution must be sufficient in volume.** Having good ideas is not enough; you need enough trades to verify this probability. One or two results can't change the overall pattern.

**Third, risk must be prioritized.** As long as you're still in the game, there's a chance to turn things around. But a single out-of-control liquidation could mean the end of your journey, and you may never come back.

The most painful part is that trading's greatest challenge isn't technical skills. It's these points: accepting losses as routine, executing plans in a murky environment, and maintaining principles during adverse conditions.

True veterans often appear very ordinary: they don't chase after rising prices or sell on dips; most of the time, they wait patiently, only acting when they have an advantage. This tests your patience the most.

Ultimately, trading is a test of how long your patience and execution ability can last. Those who can stay calm and act according to plan amid uncertainty will eventually see rewards come to them over time.

In this market, where only a few can make money, learning to avoid common pitfalls and maintaining disciplined operations is the right path from small traders to turning the tide.

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GasGoblin

· 13h ago

Honestly, the idea of guaranteed profit simply doesn't exist. I've never seen anyone truly survive on that. --- Patience is the hardest thing to master. Most people just can't endure that boring period. --- A single liquidation really means the end. That hits hard. --- The ability to wait is indeed a hundred times more important than looking at charts, but no one wants to hear that. --- I really dislike those claiming to have a perfect system; the ones who get wrecked the worst are always these people. --- Risk management sounds simple, but actually executing it can drive you crazy. --- How many times have I heard "don't chase the highs or sell the lows," yet I still can't change. --- Probabilistic thinking, it took me several times to really understand it. --- Discipline and patience—no doubt, but it's really hard. --- Discipline-based trading is the real deal. I feel most people are lacking in this area.

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MEVHunterZhang

· 01-13 00:25

That's right, but most people simply can't hold on. --- The first priority is risk. I think many people agree in words but have already gone all-in with their hands. --- Waiting is really too difficult, especially when watching others eat the meat. --- The core is still mindset; technical skills are secondary, and that hits hard. --- The problem is how to recognize your advantages in a muddy environment—that's the real bottleneck. --- Behind the ordinary appearance of veterans are countless epiphanies after being beaten up. --- The term probabilistic thinking is good; most retail investors are just gambling with one or two trades driven by a gambler's mentality. --- Discipline-based trading sounds simple, but how many can truly do it? --- So why are there still so many people rushing in? Probably all want to make quick money.

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BlockchainNewbie

· 01-12 22:46

Exactly right, the key is to stay alive. Getting liquidated once and it's game over—this thing is all too real.

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GweiWatcher

· 01-12 04:37

That's right, the problem is that most people can't do it. Waiting for this to happen is really too difficult. Watching others soar makes you want to follow the trend, but following always results in losses. Risk control is always the top priority. I was eliminated once because I went all-in, and now I'm still climbing back. This article can be summed up in two words—heartbreaking. Actually, the simplest thing is persistence, but brother, persistence is the hardest. Probability thinking sounds easy when you say it, but few actually survive by it. I give five stars to the phrase "don't chase the rise and sell the fall," but I still chase haha. Those who make money are always silent; all the bragging ones are just paying IQ tax. Discipline > Talent, I agree with that.

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BridgeNomad

· 01-11 05:48

ngl this is just risk management 101 with extra steps... one wrong bridge exploit and you're bagholding forever, trust me i know

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BlockchainBrokenPromise

· 01-11 05:46

You're absolutely right, making a guaranteed profit is inherently a false proposition. I was exhausted trying to make every trade perfect, and in the end, I still lost everything. Now I understand that living is more important than a high win rate. The phrase "Risk first" is truly enlightening; so many people fall into a complete wipeout and never recover. Most of the time, you're just waiting—who the hell can stick with that? It's too difficult. Probabilistic thinking sounds easy to say, but how long does it take to truly understand it through practice?

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LiquidityWitch

· 01-11 05:46

the whole "probability thinking" thing hits different when you realize most degens are literally just brewing chaos in dark pools instead of actually understanding their own edge. perfectly charted rectangles don't mean squat if you can't sit still lmao

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RugpullTherapist

· 01-11 05:38

After all this time, the same truth remains—there's no guaranteed profit, only probabilities. I used to look for a perfect system, but now I realize that's just self-hypnosis. What truly makes a difference isn't how advanced the technology is, but whether you can resist the urge to act.

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ShortingEnthusiast

· 01-11 05:26

Sounds good, but I still think most people simply can't stick with it. --- Probabilistic thinking is indeed correct, but it's extremely difficult to execute. --- Getting wiped out in one blow and being out is terrifying to think about... Still, you need to first understand your own risk tolerance. --- Waiting is indeed the biggest test of patience. I often wait until I fall asleep and then miss the opportunity. --- Honestly, it's still about mindset; skills and techniques are secondary. --- It seems that all those who truly make money share a common trait: they appear boring. --- I agree that risk comes first; I've seen too many people ignore this and end up bankrupt. --- So the question is how to find that method with a positive advantage—that's the real challenge. --- Discipline-based trading sounds simple, but in practice, everyone is their own boss. --- Not chasing rises or falling prices... I just ask, how many retail investors can really do that?

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SolidityStruggler

· 01-11 05:24

Wait, I just want to ask, does anyone really manage to avoid looking at the market entirely? --- Everyone's right, but what percentage of people actually follow through? --- The phrase "Risk first" really hit me; too many people have it backwards. --- It sounds simple, but actually doing it is deadly, especially the part about waiting. --- The veteran's "ordinary" setting is brilliant, completely opposite of what I imagined, haha. --- I'm just worried that I'm the type of small investor who gets overwhelmed after one or two losses. --- Probabilistic thinking is indeed important, but building the right mindset is truly the hell mode. --- That phrase about liquidation hits hard; I've seen too many tragic scenes of total wipeouts. --- So in the end, is it still about surviving longer?

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