Recently, a hot topic has been trending in the market—Polymarket's prediction data shows that the probability of "military action against Iran before the end of the year" has surged to 46%. If extended to the end of March, the probability jumps to 62%. Additionally, news today indicates that Trump has already received a briefing on related action plans (though no final decision has been made yet). The tense atmosphere inside the Pentagon can be seen even from the Pizza Index—order volumes from last night to this morning have shown a significant spike.

Such geopolitical uncertainty has never been a small matter for financial markets. Let's break it down and see how various assets might perform if things come to a head.

**Safe-haven and Energy Assets Will Be the Winners**

First, crude oil. Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world's oil passes. If maritime transportation is disrupted, oil prices will react quickly and fiercely. WTI and Brent crude could easily break $100, and in extreme cases, surge to $120–$150. This would have a tangible impact on global energy costs.

Gold is definitely a safe bet. Whenever geopolitical risks rise, funds tend to flow into gold, and a gap-up opening is almost inevitable. The US dollar will also attract capital—safe-haven funds will flow back into US Treasuries, pushing up the dollar index. Listed military-industrial companies like Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, major US stocks, will directly benefit.

Bitcoin is particularly interesting. Currently, Bitcoin has both the "digital gold" safe-haven attribute and the characteristics of a risk asset. In the short term, it might decline along with other risk assets, but if the situation worsens and the stability of traditional fiat currencies is questioned, BTC often quickly rebounds—this is a historical pattern.

**Risk Assets and Sensitive Industries Will Face Pressure**

Conversely, mainstream stock indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq may not fare well. The uncertainty brought by war alone can scare off investors. Coupled with soaring energy costs eroding corporate profit margins, the stock market will find it hard to remain unaffected.

The airline and tourism industries will suffer even more. Rising oil prices directly increase fuel costs, and war can impact the actual navigability of flight routes. These dual pressures are enough to dampen earnings expectations for these sectors.

Non-USD currencies, especially those heavily dependent on energy imports (Europe, Japan), may come under pressure. The euro and yen typically can't outperform the dollar in such times.

Overall, this is a classic window for risk assets to be re-priced. Monitoring these signals and adjusting positions in advance could help seize opportunities amid market turbulence.