#美国贸易赤字状况 2026 Federal Reserve Rate Cut Path: Divergence in Institutional Forecasts

Since the beginning of the year, major investment banks have shown significant divergence in their views on the Fed's rate cuts next year. The mainstream consensus leans towards a moderate approach, with Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Nomura, and Barclays largely in agreement, expecting two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points throughout the year, bringing the rate to the 3.00%-3.25% range. Among them, Goldman Sachs bets on cuts in March and June, Nomura favors June and September, while Morgan Stanley leans toward January and April (though the probability of a rate cut in January is actually low).

However, there are equally strong opposing views. Citigroup appears much more aggressive, advocating for three cuts totaling 75 basis points, scheduled for January, March, and September, with the final rate falling between 2.75% and 3.00%. In contrast, JPMorgan Chase and Deutsche Bank are more conservative, expecting only a small 25 basis point adjustment once. Even more extreme are HSBC, Standard Chartered, which think there might be zero cuts for the entire year, while Macquarie is completely opposite, expecting rate hikes. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) falls somewhere in between, with an end-of-year forecast of about 3.4%.

The real variables that determine the pace of rate cuts are just three: when inflation will truly return to target, how resilient the labor market is, and the policy inclination of the new Fed Chair. Changes in these factors directly impact risk asset allocation. A moderate scenario with two cuts is most friendly to stocks and cryptocurrencies, while fewer or zero cuts benefit the US dollar and gold. An aggressive scenario with three cuts could provide greater upside potential for growth stocks and high-beta assets like $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL .