Founder Securities: Market prices in January for the Federal Reserve to not cut interest rates, with the earliest rate cut possibly starting in June

Deep Tide TechFlow News, January 10th, according to Jinshi Data reports, a research report from Founder Securities states that December’s non-farm payroll data was mixed. The US labor market overall is in a mild downward trend, but the marginal improvement in the unemployment rate provides the Federal Reserve with more reasons to hold off in January. Coupled with the possibility that the Supreme Court may declare IEEPA tariffs unconstitutional, this could be short-term bullish for US stocks and the dollar, and bearish for US Treasuries: data such as new employment, job vacancy rate, and wage growth indicate that the US labor market in December remains relatively weak, but the marginal decline in the unemployment rate is one of the few bright spots.

From the perspective of interest rate futures and US Treasury movements, market pricing after the data release indicates that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in January, with the earliest possible rate cut in June. Meanwhile, as the Supreme Court may soon declare IEEPA tariffs unconstitutional, this suggests a marginal improvement in economic expectations and weakening inflation pressures, but also an increase in fiscal deficits.

Under the combination of the Federal Reserve being cautious about cutting rates and tariffs cooling down, short-term US Treasuries face more unfavorable factors, with a higher probability of remaining at high levels. US stocks benefit from AI prosperity and reduced tariff disruptions, especially in sectors like discretionary consumption and industry, which are more resilient to tariff impacts.