#密码资产动态追踪 Dual Catalyst Warning: Non-farm Payrolls and Policy Uncertainty Hit Tonight, $BTC May Face Critical Test

【Focus 1: US December Non-farm Payroll Data】

The first full employment report after the government shutdown has everyone holding their breath. Currently, market expectations for job gains fluctuate between 25,000 and over 100,000, with the unemployment rate possibly rising slightly to 4.5%. How much will this data impact the spillover effect on crypto assets?

Look in these directions: if job growth falls within the "comfort zone" of 60,000 to 100,000, it suggests that the Federal Reserve's rate cut pace will likely remain unchanged, which is positive for risk assets like $BTC. Conversely, if employment exceeds 120,000, the rate hike cycle may be extended, putting short-term pressure on Bitcoin. The most aggressive scenario—employment data dropping below 50,000—could accelerate market expectations of easing, potentially allowing Bitcoin to break out.

【Focus 2: Legal Battle over Trump's Tariff Policy】

The Supreme Court's ruling is imminent, and this judicial review concerns the future of US fiscal policy. Industry estimates suggest about an 80% probability that these tariff measures will be deemed unconstitutional, with only a 20% chance of maintaining the original ruling.

If the policy is declared invalid, the US fiscal deficit will sharply increase, and demand for safe-haven assets will rise significantly—this is precisely when cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum can serve as hedges. On the other hand, if the ruling punts the issue to Congress, policy uncertainty will persist, and in this state, $BTC still holds appeal as a risk hedge.

🔔 Conclusion: These two "exams" are likely to provide a positive window for the crypto market. A clear market trend will emerge tonight.