2026-01-07 17:24:27

Recently, this wave of rally looks prone to sudden crashes, but even if there's a pullback, I still maintain the bullish overall logic without wavering. The problem is, dips happen frequently, but the magnitude isn't fierce enough, just like a half-filled bottle swaying. Bears are looking for short-term trading opportunities, but the entire market is still unable to escape the fate of oscillation—however, the key is that the current oscillation is different from before. The previous oscillation, which repeatedly bounced within a fixed range and refused to break out, has evolved into an upward oscillation accompanied by gradually rising support levels. So the trading approach is clear: focus on long positions at low levels, with short positions at high levels as a supplement.

How does the technical analysis look? Recently, Bitcoin's daily chart shows a relatively long bearish candle retreat, so short-term bears still hold the advantage. On the hourly chart, there are repeated lower shadows around 91,400, indicating some support, but the overall trend remains a weak oscillation. From the indicator perspective, the hourly MACD histogram remains negative, with DIF and DEA diverging downward, signaling a clear bearish trend; the daily MACD has also formed a death cross, with declining momentum. The hourly RSI is at 38.1, approaching oversold territory, with rebound demand emerging; the daily RSI is only 35, reflecting weak market sentiment. Regarding moving averages, the hourly EMA7 is suppressed by EMA30 and EMA120, showing a bearish alignment, indicating short-term resistance; the daily moving averages are similarly bearish, with EMA7 exerting obvious resistance on the price. The key support level to watch below is 90,000 for stability.

Specific trading ideas reference:

Bitcoin strategy—
(1) Buy in the 90400-91200 range, with a stop loss below 89600, target 92000-93000, and if it continues to break through, watch around 94000.
(2) Short in the 93000-92200 range, with a stop loss above 93800, target a pullback to 91300-90500.

Ethereum strategy—
(1) Buy in the 3090-3130 range, with a stop loss below 3050, target 3220-3260.
(2) Short in the 3280-3240 range, with a stop loss above 3320, target 3190-3150.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for reference only. Investment involves risks. Specific operations should be flexibly adjusted according to real-time market conditions.

BTC0.2%

ETH-1%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

7 Likes

Reward
7
5
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

OnchainHolmes

· 12h ago

A half-empty bottle of water sways... I really feel uncomfortable watching it. The logic of raising the support level is still somewhat interesting. --- 91400 can't be pushed up again. The bears are still a bit fierce. Continue to see if 90000 can hold. --- Instead of worrying about short-term fluctuations, it's better to wait for an entry at a low level. Anyway, the long-term logic hasn't been broken. --- RSI is already at 35 and still no rebound? That's really strange. This time, it probably won't wash out completely, right? --- All moving averages are in a bearish arrangement. It's indeed uncomfortable in the short term, but I am optimistic about the future. --- The trading strategy is clear, but the problem is that my mentality collapses early when the opportunity comes, haha. --- Gradually raising the support level is a good observation, indicating there is still a bottom, so it's not just a pure dump. --- Why always shorting at high levels? I still prefer to steadily go long at low levels, with less risk.

View OriginalReply0

SignatureLiquidator

· 01-07 17:53

If the 90000 support level is broken, the half-full water bottle will be completely spilled --- It's both oscillating and the support level is being raised again, hearing this makes my old ears and eardrums ache --- RSI is almost at freezing point and still no rebound, this market is really a bit intimidating --- Long-term bullish, short-term bearish? It all depends on whether we can hold the 90k, otherwise it's all just talk on paper --- Raising the support level gradually sounds nice, but actually it's just being forced upward --- It would be good if this wave can really push to 93000, don't overthink it --- MACD death cross, moving averages in a bearish alignment, honestly it's just weak consolidation, don't get carried away --- The title says not aggressive enough, but I think traders' mentality is just not fierce enough --- Repeated lower shadows at 91400, if it's really support, why hasn't it rebounded yet --- I can't understand those numbers for Ethereum, anyway just follow Bitcoin's movements

View OriginalReply0

ZKProofEnthusiast

· 01-07 17:51

Half a bottle of water swaying haha, this description is perfect, I feel exactly like that now. Support levels are gradually rising, which is indeed a bit different. Keep an eye on the 90000 line. RSI is already so low, a rebound should be coming... but don’t let it be a false rebound again. According to your strategy, buy on dips at low levels, short on rallies at high levels. This is a prudent approach, and it will help ease the mindset. I’ve noted the short position range of 93000-92200, just worried about breaking below 89600. Feels like Bitcoin will fluctuate for a few more days. Don’t be too optimistic before 99000.

View OriginalReply0

EthMaximalist

· 01-07 17:46

The metaphor of a half-filled bottle swaying is perfect. The most annoying thing is this kind of market, where you can't make money and have to keep an eye on the charts. Whether the 90000 break this time is really crucial, it feels like it needs to drop a bit more to find the bottom. The long-term bullish logic is sound, but the short-term has been a bit tough these past few days. The ETH strategy seems much clearer than BTC. I plan to buy within the 3090-3130 range. The observation that support levels are being raised is indeed meticulous, indicating that the bottom is gradually forming, but we still need to wait for more data.

View OriginalReply0

gaslight_gasfeez

· 01-07 17:41

The metaphor of a half-empty bottle swaying is perfect, that's exactly how it feels—so annoying. Raising the support level is the key; this time it's not a dull sideways consolidation. We must hold 90,000; if it's broken, we'll need to reassess the logic. I'm a bit pessimistic about the short-term bearish trend; it feels like there will be more fluctuations for a few days. Going long should be done at low levels; shorting at high levels should really just be a supplementary strategy, not the main focus.

View OriginalReply0