Recently, discussions about FIL in the Web3 community have exploded—some firmly believe in bottom-fishing, while others are eager to cut losses and exit. As an investor who has been active in the crypto market for years, I want to talk about the true nature of this topic today.

First, let's review the basic background of FIL. The distributed storage sector was once hyped to an incredible degree—claimed to be the core of the Web3 infrastructure revolution. The logic actually makes sense: traditional HTTP storage models are expensive and insecure, while the IPFS protocol promotes low-cost, high-security distributed storage. FIL, as the incentive layer token for this system, even gained backing from major institutions like Sequoia Capital. It all sounds very enticing.

But reality is often less ideal. This is also the fundamental reason why I remain cautious about FIL's future trajectory—the sector itself has changed. The distributed storage field is no longer dominated solely by FIL. Projects like Arweave, which offer "permanent storage with a one-time payment," have diverted significant demand, creating considerable impact. More importantly, the storage scenarios that FIL claims to support still lack substantial, real-world applications. A closer look reveals that most so-called storage needs are actually driven by self-sustaining cycles among miners—essentially a false prosperity rather than genuine market demand.

Without real demand backing it, the token's value is as fragile as a castle in the air. This is the simplest logic in the crypto market—products must solve real problems, or the token will lack long-term support. FIL is currently stuck at this point. From this perspective, $3 might indeed be a relatively decent exit point.