#数字资产行情上升 Is ETH at a crossroads again? Warnings are flashing across technical, on-chain, and macro dimensions

(1-hour K-line observation | January 7, 2026)
**The technical outlook has made its stance clear**
Looking at ETH on the 1-hour chart, with consecutive bearish candles, the latest close at 3204.86 has already broken through the middle band of the Bollinger Bands (3250.87), now tightly hugging the lower band (3201.30). What does this indicate? Short-term selling pressure is accelerating, one word: weak.
The moving average system provides a clearer signal. MA7 has fallen from 3247.10 below MA30 (3248.06), and the EMA has also experienced a death cross. The 1-hour technicals have turned hostile. What about MACD? The green bars are expanding, DIF and DEA are both crossing below zero, indicating the downtrend is not over yet.
The key support zone is between 3200-3180, which is the last line of defense for the bulls. Once this level is broken with increased volume, the downside space will truly open up.
**On-chain data reveals hidden signals**
What have whales been up to lately? Monitoring data shows that in the past 6 hours, several large holders transferred about 120,000 ETH to major exchanges, a move that strongly suggests potential sell pressure.
Perpetual contracts are even more interesting. While the price is falling, open interest is rising, indicating that bears are desperately piling up positions. This game has entered a heated phase. Funding rates have also turned negative, with several platforms’ ETH rates dropping to -0.02%, clearly reflecting market sentiment—pessimistic.
**The macro environment is adding fuel to the fire**
The Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes signaled a “delay in rate cuts,” putting pressure on risk assets globally. In the Ethereum ecosystem, L2 competition is fierce, with a noticeable short-term capital outflow. Data from institutional players is also quite sobering—many funds are reducing their ETH holdings and shifting to safer cash assets.
**My perspective**
Technical breakdown, on-chain selling pressure accumulating, and bearish macro sentiment—these three factors together suggest ETH is likely to test the support zone at 3180-3150 in the short term. If it cannot hold above 3250 (middle Bollinger band) during a rebound, this correction cycle could extend further.
What’s my specific plan? I’ve already moved my stop-loss higher to control risk. I will wait for a rebound to the 3230-3250 area to gradually open short positions, with a stop at 3280 and a target of 3160. If volume breaks below 3180, the logic for chasing shorts becomes even stronger.
**A reminder**
Market panic can indeed create opportunities, but the risk of bottom-fishing on the left side is real—it's like catching a blade with your bare hands. Strictly execute stop-losses, leave enough ammunition for yourself, and wait until the right-side signals are truly clear before making big moves. The market is always there; there’s no need to fight your own funds. $ETH