#比特币六连涨 Bitcoin Returns to $90,000 but Market Confidence Remains Weak

Bitcoin price has retaken the $90,000 level, but the foundation for this rebound remains fragile. Despite the price recovery, traders overall remain defensive, and the derivatives market has yet to show signs of sustained optimism.
This week’s Bitcoin rebound coincided with almost no clear signals supporting a long-term upward trend in the cryptocurrency derivatives market. Even though last week’s Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) saw renewed inflows, the overall market structure has not improved in tandem.
The current price increase appears more like a brief respite rather than the start of a new upward cycle. In key areas reflecting market sentiment—perpetual and fixed-term Bitcoin contracts—most trading activity remains concentrated in short-term contracts. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has long been regarded as an important indicator of institutional investor participation, but demand for forward contracts remains subdued.
Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at K33 Research, noted in a report released on Tuesday that although there are signs of slight improvement in market sentiment, overall caution persists, with investors still adopting a wait-and-see approach amid recent gains. The report shows that spot trading volume, volatility, and derivatives leverage levels are all hovering near lows seen before December last year, with 86% of open interest concentrated in recently expired contracts.
Meanwhile, funding rates for perpetual contracts remain low, reflecting limited bullish positions and a risk appetite that has yet to significantly recover.
However, the prolonged selling pressure into late 2024 reversed in the first few trading days of this year, pushing Bitcoin prices higher. On January 5, Bitcoin ETF recorded its largest single-day net inflow since October 7 of last year, and it was also among the top ten largest single-day capital inflows since January 1, 2025.
If Bitcoin continues to strengthen, it could reignite futures trading activity on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. As the spread between spot and futures prices widens, basis trading—the strategy of profiting from the price difference—may once again become attractive.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s underperformance relative to gold and stock markets has sparked discussions about the long-term value of crypto assets. Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodities strategist Mike McGlone stated in a report released on Monday that Bitcoin’s volatility has been steadily declining, especially when compared to gold and risk assets, which may indicate that the most explosive phase of crypto assets is gradually coming to an end.