2.36 million USD betting on volatility, what are big players waiting for at the end of March

A trader has invested $2.36 million on Deribit to deploy an options strategy, purchasing 660 call options and 660 put options, all expiring on March 27, 2026. This significant move reveals market participants’ true expectations regarding the recent BTC trend.

Strategy Analysis: Why Buy Both Calls and Puts

This operation is known in options trading as a “straddle,” with the core logic straightforward: the trader is not betting on direction but on volatility.

The advantage of this strategy is: regardless of whether BTC moves up or down, as long as the volatility is large enough, the trader can profit. The downside is: if BTC remains stable before March 27, both options may expire worthless, and the $2.36 million could be lost.

Market Context: Current BTC Position

According to the latest data, BTC is trading near $91,921.87, down 2.37% in 24 hours. This price point is crucial for understanding the trader’s strategy:

• The call option strike price is $120,000, meaning BTC needs to rise about 30% from the current price.
• The put option strike price is $80,000, meaning BTC needs to fall about 13% from the current price.

The trader is willing to invest $1.5 million in puts, which costs 1.74 times more than the calls, suggesting a more cautious assessment of downside risk.

What Does This Reflect?

Market insiders’ true expectations for the near-term trend

An investment of $2.36 million indicates this is not a small retail trader testing waters. Traders capable of deploying such large sums into options usually have access to more market information. They are likely anticipating significant events or market turning points around the end of March.

Volatility expectations rising

Buying both calls and puts essentially bets on implied volatility increasing. This implies market participants expect BTC’s price volatility to become more intense rather than continue to oscillate within a narrow range.

Shift in risk appetite

Such large-scale options positioning often occurs when the market anticipates major changes. From the cost perspective, the trader’s more substantial investment in puts suggests a more cautious stance on downside risks, possibly reflecting short-term risk aversion.

Follow-up Focus

In the two months leading up to the March 27 expiry, BTC’s price movement will determine the fate of this $2.36 million. Similar large options positions often serve as important signals of market sentiment about future trends.

Summary

This options strategy is essentially a volatility bet, with the trader expecting significant directional swings in BTC before the end of March. The scale of the $2.36 million investment, the higher cost of puts, and the cautious stance on downside risks all reflect a cautious attitude among major market players. Whether BTC moves up or down, as long as volatility is sufficient, this strategy can profit. On-chain data like this often represent the true expectations of smart money and warrant close attention moving forward.