#去中心化预测市场 Seeing the news about Polymarket building its own L2, I was reminded of a few similar cases I've seen in recent years. When an application grows large enough, it will indeed face a choice: continue relying on the underlying infrastructure or take control of its own destiny.

The prediction market track itself is quite interesting — it encompasses functions like information aggregation, asset allocation, and risk hedging. But we need to view the competition for this infrastructure calmly. On the surface, it’s about applications striving for independence; deeper down, the logic is: when the value-added potential of the underlying public chain is limited, leading applications will inevitably seek better cost efficiency, performance, and control.

For us holders, this is a reminder — the redistribution of power within the ecosystem often brings changes in liquidity and trading pairs. Whether on Polygon or new L2s, when participating in such innovative applications, position sizes must be controlled. Prediction markets are inherently high-risk, and with infrastructure variables added, it’s even more important to maintain sufficient risk buffers.

In the long run, this kind of competition could be beneficial for the entire ecosystem, promoting innovation. But in the short term, our strategy should be: observe rather than chase, allocate small positions rather than heavy holdings, and focus more on understanding the underlying logic rather than following the crowd into positions. Market opportunities are always there, but only by staying sufficiently steady can we wait for the one that truly belongs to us.