#去中心化预测市场 The data changes on Polymarket are worth paying attention to. The probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 again this year has dropped to 10% from earlier expectations, reflecting a clear weakening in market expectations for a short-term breakout. In comparison, the probability at the $95,000 level remains at 32%, while the chance of falling below $80,000 has risen to 18%—this distribution reveals the market's true sentiment: downside risks are accumulating, and upside potential is shrinking.

From an on-chain capital perspective, the probability trends in such prediction markets often lead the sentiment in the spot market by half a beat. When prediction market participants are heavily betting on downward or sideways movements, it usually indicates that institutions and experienced traders have already adjusted their strategic expectations. The recent sideways consolidation of Bitcoin at high levels, combined with this probability decline, suggests that the momentum for additional buying may be insufficient.

It is recommended to focus on two key signals: first, the changes in large capital positions on Polymarket; second, the support strength at the $80,000 level—if this critical threshold is effectively broken, the prediction probabilities may further adjust, and at that point, it may be necessary to reassess the allocation strategy for Q4.