Crude oil is struggling to hold gains around $57 a barrel as peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia gain traction. The market is bracing for a potential surge in supply—if Moscow and Caracas manage to ramp up exports again, the global crude market could face serious oversupply headwinds. That's exactly what traders are pricing in right now: even with ongoing geopolitical tensions keeping some premium in the market, the hope of normalized supply flows is proving stronger. The result? Downward pressure on prices despite all the geopolitical noise. For crypto enthusiasts tracking macro trends, this matters—oil weakness often signals broader shifts in risk sentiment and dollar strength.